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KF5JRV > WX 26.07.17 13:07l 102 Lines 4005 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 20256_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 7/26
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170726/1134Z 20256@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
!RRR!000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260948
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 26 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Hilary is centered near 16.3N 111.0W at 0900 UTC,
moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973
mb. Maximum sustained windS are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 105 nm of the
center, with scattered moderate isolated strong convection
elsewhere within 150 nm. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 for more details.
Hurricane Irwin is centered near 15.7N 121.5W at 0900 UTC moving
WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is displaced within 120 nm
NW of the center. Irwin is expected to interact with hurricane
Hilary during the next 3 days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 for more details.
Tropical Depression Greg is centered near 17.8N 139.5W at 0900
UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Greg is forecast to move west of the forecast area and weaken
into a remnant low by tonight. Convective activity continues to
decrease with scattered moderate convection noted within 60 nm
NW of the center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 101W N of 05N moving W at 10-15 kt.
Convection is limited near the wave axis.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W across western Panama and
southern Costa Rica to 09N88W to 12N105W. A small area of active
convection is within 60 nm of 13N91W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected to continue within 120
nm of the Baja California peninsula through Friday. Seas will
gradually increase as southerly swell associated with Hurricane
Hilary will begin impacting the forecast zones offshore of Baja
California through Friday. Gentle southerly flow will prevail in
the Gulf of California, and moderate southerly flow across the
northern Gulf of California.
Nocturnal fresh northerly winds are forecast across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Friday morning. Hilary is expected to pass S
of the Revillagigedo Islands today. 8 ft seas associated with
Hilary are forecast to reach the outer waters of marine zone
PMZ015 through Thursday.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Across the Gulf of Papagayo, expect fresh winds each night with
the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow the next few days,
occasionally building max seas to 7 ft in a mix of E wind waves
and long period SW swell.
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected the next few days.
Long period cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to propagate
into the forecast waters through Saturday, reaching the waters
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Thursday.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure is located N of the area with a ridge axis that
extends across the forecast waters north of 20N. The pressure
gradient between this system and the active zone of tropical
cyclone activity will maintain moderate to fresh fresh N to NE
winds W of 120W through Thursday. Cross equatorial 8-9 ft SW
swell will spread across the waters south of 10N and east of
110W, persisting into the weekend.
$$
Mundell
73 Scott KF5JRV
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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