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KF5JRV > WX 30.07.17 15:03l 135 Lines 5982 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 20536_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 7/30
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170730/1343Z 20536@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
!RRR!000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301008
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 30 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Hilary is centered near 23.5N 124.7W at 0900 UTC
or about 815 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California, moving
WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 75 nm
across the SE semicircle. Hilary is moving across cooler waters,
and associated convection has begun to diminish overnight. As
Hilary moves farther NW over the next few days, it will
gradually weaken and lose tropical characteristics, likely
within the next 24 hours. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 for more details.
Tropical Storm Irwin is centered near 17.1N 125.0W at 0900 UTC
or about 920 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California,
moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm across
the SE semicircle, while scattered moderate convection is within
75 nm across the NW semicircle. Irwin has strengthened slightly
during the past several hours as it remains connected to deep
tropical moisture. Irwin is forecast to gradually move more
northwestward during the next 48 hours as it follows Hilary out
of the tropics, and will also encounter cooler waters as it
reaches near 22N Monday. This too will significantly diminish
convection and lead to loss of tropical characteristics. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave along 90W is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. 17.1N 125.
Very active convection has blossomed overnight offshore of
Nicaragua and El Salvador ahead of the wave. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from
07N to 14N between 87W and 91.5W, while scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 05N to 10.5N between 91.5W and 95W.
Computer models suggest that this active weather will continue
today.
A tropical wave is along 103W-104W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No
significant convection is observed.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N119W, then
continues from 12N128W to 10N140W. No intertropical convergence
zone is analyzed E of 140W. No significant convection is
observed other than already described in monsoon trough section.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure centered NW of the area will support gentle to
moderate NW winds within 120 nm of the Baja California peninsula
through this afternoon. Tropical Cyclone Hilary's affects are
mainly west of the area, with some small southerly swell
expected to fade across the outer waters beyond 150 nm through
this morning. The NW movement of the system will allow a narrow
ridge to build between the departing cyclone and Baja
California, which will result in moderate to fresh NW winds this
evening through Monday night. As these winds increase, seas
will build to 7 to 9 ft as these wind waves combine with long
period southerly swell moving into the region during the next
few days.
Cross equatorial long period southerly swell with seas of 7 to 8
ft will reach the offshore waters between the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes today, and the waters between
Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes late tonight into early Monday.
Elsewhere, generally moderate NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
will prevail.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Across the Gulf of Papagayo region, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail through the morning hours in the wake of the exiting
tropical wave, building maximum seas of 6 to 7 ft in a mix of E
wind waves and long period SW swell. Winds will veer more SE and
diminish slightly tonight there. On Monday, global models are
suggesting a weak area of low pressure to develop in the
vicinity of 10N90W and move generally westward through Tuesday
and then more W-NW through Wednesday. Likely S-SW monsoonal flow
will build seas to 7 to 9 ft across the waters S of Guatemala
and the Gulf of Tehuantepec coastline.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected the
next few days. Large long period cross-equatorial S-SW swell
will continue to propagate into the forecast waters during the
weekend, with seas 8 to 9 ft reaching as far north as 10N. The
area of 8 ft seas will then reach just offshore all Central
America Pacific coastal sections by Sunday. Seas will gradually
subside starting Monday.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1028 mb high is located N of the area near 38N135W with a
ridge axis extending to just offshore of Baja California Norte.
The pressure gradient between the high pressure system and the
active zone of tropical cyclones will maintain moderate to fresh
N to NE winds W of 120W through Sunday. Long period cross
equatorial SW swell of 8 to 9 ft is spreading across the waters
S of 10N and E of 110W, and will persist through tonight. As the
tropical cyclone activity shifts to the NW and eventually
weakens across the northwestern discussion waters, a weak
pressure pattern will develop between the remnant cyclones and
the equatorial trough to the south. This will result in a
broadening area of gentle to moderate winds between 10N and 20N,
W of 110W early next week.
$$
Latto/Stripling
73 Scott KF5JRV
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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