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KF5JRV > WX 31.07.17 13:23l 123 Lines 5018 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 20598_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 7/31
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170731/1147Z 20598@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
!RRR!
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310949
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 31 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Irwin is centered near 20.7N 126.7W at 0900 UTC
or about 950 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California
moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 75
nm SE and 60 nm NW semicircles of the center. Irwin is expected
to maintain a NNW course during the next 24 hours and move over
cooler waters, which will diminish convection, and thus lose
tropical characteristics. Irwin is expected to become a post
tropical cyclone within 24 hours. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 for
more details.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary is centered near 26N129W at 600 UTC
or about 1020 nm WNW of the southern tip of Baja California
moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Satellite imagery shows shallow convection occurring within 180
nm across the NE semicircle. Hilary is expected to move NW to
WNW during the next 24 hours and then gradually become absorbed
within the weakening circulation of Irwin at around 48 hours.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 87W-88W moving W near 15 kt. Scattered
to numerous convection has shifted across Central America
overnight and is now from 03.5N to 14N between 82W and 96.5W.
A tropical wave is along 94W-95W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A few
clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are observed
from 08N to 16.5N between 93.5W and 97.5W.
A tropical wave extends is along 106W-107W moving W at 10 to 15
kt. Isolated moderate convection is near the Mexican coast from
near Acapulco to Mazatlan.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from low pres near 11N81.5W 1012 MB
TO 08N90W TO 11N112W. The ITCZ extends from 13.5N128W TO beyond
10.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
03.5N to 08N E of 79W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Northwest winds off the coast of Baja California have begun to
freshen overnight as a narrow ridged is building SSE across the
area between the twins of Hilary and Irwin to the W and the
Mexican mainland. Winds are expected to build to near 20 kt
across most of the area with isolated spots to 25 kt. This will
build seas to 6-8 ft across the area in mixed NW wind waves and
long period southerly swell. The ridge will weaken tonight
through Tue and allow winds to diminish. Generally light to
gentle winds will persist elsewhere in the Gulf of California
and the offshore Mexican waters south of 20N through mid week.
Lingering southerly swell will maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow S of 08N and the
peak of a new pulse of southerly swell will build seas to 7 to 9
ft across the waters today, before beginning to slowly subside
Tue through Wed. A pair of tropical waves moving across the area
this morning are producing very active convection shifting W off
of Central America and into the waters E of 90W this morning.
These wave will shift W over the next few days and maintain
active weather, and are expected to merge SSW of Tehuatepec Tue,
where broad low pressure will develop. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds will develop with and behind the second wave and brush
along the coast and coastal waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
on Tue, raising seas to around 8 ft.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1028 mb high is located well N of the area near 41N134W with a
narrow ridge axis extending SSE and parallel the coast of Baja
California. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
system and the active zone of tropical cyclones will maintain
moderate N to NE winds W of 127W through this morning. Long
period cross equatorial SSW swell is spreading across the waters
S of 10N and E of 110W, producing seas 8-9 ft, and will persist
through midweek. As the weakening tropical cyclones shifts to
the NW and become non tropical, a weak pressure pattern will
develop between the remnant cyclones and the equatorial trough
to the south. This will result in a broadening area of gentle to
moderate winds between 10N and 20N, W of 110W early next week.
$$
Stripling
73 Scott KF5JRV
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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