| |
KF5JRV > WX 04.08.17 13:04l 120 Lines 5071 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 190_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/4
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170804/1138Z 190@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040958
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 4 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A tropical wave is along 107W/108W from 20N southward. A 1010 mb
low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 16N. The
precipitation pattern appears to be comparatively more organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to support some additional
development for only another 24 hours or less, before becoming
hostile by the weekend. This low pressure center and area of
precipitation should move west-northwestward about 15 mph for
the next few days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives
this low pressure a medium change of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 48 hours. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas
of 8 to 10 ft are noted from 15N to 18N between 102W and 105W.
These marine conditions will continue to affect the offshore
waters of the States of Michoacan and Colima through tonight.
..TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 17N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave will continue to move
westward across the Gulf of Tehuantepec area tonight. Isolated
moderate precipitation is from 06N to 09N between 91W and 99W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through Costa Rica near 09N85W, to
07N95W, 09N100W, to a 1010 MB low pressure center that is near
16N107W, 11N116W, and 10N126W. The ITCZ continues from 10N126W
beyond 10N140W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from
03N to 08N between 76W and 79W along the coasts of Colombia and
Panama. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 NM on
either side of the line that runs from 12N117W to 09N122W to
09N132W, and also from 08N to 11N from 137W westward.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section, for information about
a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 16N107.5W or a few
hundred miles to the west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico,
A low level trough will meander across the Baja California
Peninsula. A ridge will dominate the offshore waters W of Baja
California producing gentle to locally moderate NW winds through
the weekend, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in mixed
long period NW and cross-equatorial southerly swell. Gentle
southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California,
except for moderate southerly flow expected to the N of 30N on
Friday night and again on Saturday night.
The Gulf of Tehuantepec: moderate to fresh northerly winds are
expected late Friday night into early Saturday morning with the
assistance of the drainage flow.
A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge
period of 19 to 20 seconds, is forecast to reach the coast of
Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes on Tuesday.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The Gulf of Papagayo: moderate to fresh nocturnal offshore winds
are expected tonight into Friday morning with seas building to 6
ft.
Moderate southerly winds are expected to the south of the
monsoon trough. Gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon
trough with seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Additional
pulses of cross equatorial long period southerly swell will
continue to reach the area. A new set of long period southerly
swell, with a leading edge period of 19 to 20 seconds, is
forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands on Monday, and the coast of Central America on Tuesday.
Seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft in parts of the offshore
waters with this swell event.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough is along 29N127W 27N131W. It is the remnant of
Irwin. The trough is forecast to dissipate in 12-24 hours. A
surface ridge will build across the northern forecast waters,
after an active period of tropical cyclone activity. Moderate to
fresh trade winds also are expected around the southern
periphery of the ridge and to the north of the convergence zone,
mainly west of 120W.
The 1010 mb low pressure center from the map analysis of 04/0000
UTC has weakened and dissipated. A 1010 mb low pressure center
is forecast to develop in 24 hours, near 11N133W. Expect 20 to
25 knot winds and seas to 8 feet, within 60 nm of the center in
the N semicircle. The low pressure center will remain at 1012
mb, near 12N136W, at 48 hours, but with winds 20 knots or less
and sea heights less than 8 feet. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 NM on either
side of the line that runs from 12N117W to 09N122W to 09N132W,
and from 08N to 11N from 137W westward.
$$
mt
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
