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KF5JRV > WX 05.08.17 13:16l 115 Lines 4687 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 251_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/5
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170805/1134Z 251@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051036 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTION
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 5 2017
CORRECTED WORDING FOR TIME REFERENCES
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E at 05/0900 UTC is
near 19.2N 111.4W at 05/0900 UTC, or about 32 nm to the NW of
Socorro Island of Mexico. T.D. Eleven-E is moving NW or 315
degrees 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong from 18N to 19N
between 112W and 113W. The tropical depression remains strongly
sheared from the northeast, and the center is totally exposed.
This feature is forecast to weaken into a Post-Tropical Remnant
low pressure center later this afternoon. The depression is
nearing the Revillagigedo Islands and it is forecast to move
across forecast zone PMZ015, and well away from Los Cabos during
the next few days. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more
information.
..TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 96W/97W, from 14N southward, to a 1011
mb low pressure center. The low pressure center is within the
monsoon trough. This wave will continue to move westward and
away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec area today. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong around the
monsoon trough, as described in the paragraph with information
about the ITCZ and the monsoon trough.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through 09N84W, to a 1011 mb low
pressure center that is near 08N96W, and continuing to 08N104W
and 10N110W, and from 15N114W to 11N125W 11N130W, and to
10N137W. The ITCZ continues from 10N137W beyond 10N140W.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 12N
to 14N between 88W and 90W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 120 NM to the south of the monsoon trough between
81W and 85W...within 120 NM to the north of the monsoon trough
between 91W and 106W...and within 90 NM on either side of the
monsoon trough between 104W and 106W. Scattered moderate to
strong from 10N to 12N between 121W and 126W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section, for information that
pertains to Tropical Depression Eleven-E.
A low level trough will meander across the Baja California
Peninsula. A ridge will dominate the offshore waters that are to
the W of northern and central Baja California. Expect gentle to
moderate NW to N winds and seas generally of 4-5 ft W of Baja
California. Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow will
prevail across the Gulf of California.
The Gulf of Tehuantepec: moderate to fresh northerly winds are
forecast to persist until the early afternoon hours of today,
with the assistance of the drainage flow.
A new set of long period southerly swell, with a leading edge
period of 20 to 21 seconds, is forecast to reach the coast of
Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes on Tuesday.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The Gulf of Papagayo: Early morning moderate to fresh winds in
the Gulf of Papagayo become gentle to moderate by the afternoon.
Seas will be building to 5-6 ft.
Moderate southerly winds are expected to the south of the
monsoon trough, with gentle and variable winds to the N of the
monsoon trough and seas generally in the 4-6 ft range.
Additional pulses of cross equatorial long period southerly
swell will continue to reach the area. A new set of long period
southerly swell, with a leading edge period of 20 to 21 seconds,
is forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands on Monday, and the coast of Central America on
Tuesday. Seas are expected to build to 6-7 ft in parts of the
offshore waters with this swell event.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface ridge will build across the northern forecast waters,
as Tropical Depression Eleven-E moves NW, and well away from Los
Cabos region during the next few days. Moderate to fresh trade
winds also are expected around the southern periphery of the
ridge and to the north of the convergence zone, mainly from 120W
westward.
$$
mt
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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