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KF5JRV > WX 14.08.17 08:12l 103 Lines 3924 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 629_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/11
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170811/1215Z 629@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110918
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 UTC Fri Aug 11 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Animated IR satellite imagery indicates the remnants of Atlantic
tropical cyclone Franklin are moving off the Mexican coast
between Acapulco and Manzanillo. Surface troughing and an area of
low pressure has developed over and just SE of Cabo Corrientes. A
large area of associated convection is spreading southwestward
from Cabo Corrientes. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection covers an area between 14N and 22N between 105W and
110W. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany the
low pressure as it consolidates and moves WNW to pass just N of
the Revillagigedo Islands on Saturday. This system has a high
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours
before it moves over cooler waters on Sunday.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A well-defined tropical wave is N of 10N along 93W moving W at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is observed N of 05N between 91W and 97W. This tropical wave
will likely merge with developing low pressure to the NW during
the next couple of days.
A poorly defined tropical wave is N of 09N along 97W moving W
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to
14N between 97W and 103W. This tropical wave will lose
definition during the next day or so as it interacts with
developing systems to the E and W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N77W to low pressure 1013
MB near 10N93W, then resumes from 15N108W to 13N114W to 13N120W
to low pressure 1013 mb near 12N127W to 11N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to
10N between 83W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 08N to 12N between 110W and 121W and from 07N to
13N W of 136W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for information on
developing low pressure near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.
Otherwise, overnight gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will increase to moderate to fresh by tonight in the immediate
wake of two tropical waves passing through the region, increasing
to a fresh to strong pulse by Saturday night as high pressure
builds N of the region in the wake of the second tropical wave.
Long period southerly swell will propagate into the coast of
southern Mexico by early Monday with seas building to 8 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough,
with gentle and variable winds N of the monsoon trough
anticipated through Sunday.
A new and more robust set of Southern Hemisphere swell is
forecast by wave model guidance to cross the equator by late
Friday, bringing seas to 9 ft along the Central American coast
Sunday. Seas will gradually decay early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 12N126W with
scattered moderate convection seen from 08N to 13N between 125W
and 129W. This low will linger in the same general area through
the end of the week.
Otherwise, a weak and broad ridge dominates the waters N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate NE winds persist N of the
monsoon trough, with moderate flow converging into the monsoon
trough from the S-SW, supporting scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. No major changes are anticipated through the
weekend.
$$
CAM
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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