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KF5JRV > WX 14.08.17 08:13l 115 Lines 4503 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 709_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/12
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170812/1215Z 709@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120932
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 UTC Sat Aug 12 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 19.3N 110.4W at 12/0900 UTC
or 215 nm S of the southern tip of Baja California moving WNW at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 150 nm
in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is observed
elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. Additional winds of 20 to
30 kt are occurring in the NE semicircle within 300 nm between
Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas due to funneling between Jova
and the higher terrain along the coast. Jova is forecast to
strengthen slightly today, then begin to weaken tonight as it
moves over cooler waters, becoming a post-tropical
cyclone/remnant low by Tuesday morning. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is N of 08N along 100W moving W around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from
08N to 15N between 98W and 103W. This tropical wave will
continue to move toward the WNW but slow down during the next
couple of days.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 09N87W to low
pressure 1011 mb near 12N98W to 14N101W, then resumes from
15N116W to 11N130W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 09N between 80W
AND 93W. Scattered moderate convection is taking place within 90
nm either side of a line from 12N103W to 09N140W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for information on newly
developed Tropical Storm Jova.
Deep convection has developed over interior portions of central
Mexico during the past few hours with scattered moderate to
strong moving offshore from 21N to 23N between 105W and 108W.
This convection is propagating westward over the waters between
Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. Expect locally higher winds
and seas and frequent lightning as the convection crosses the
Entrance to the Gulf of California during the next several hours
before it dissipates.
Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the
vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula
through early next week.
Overnight gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will be fresh
early this morning, then again tonight through Sunday morning,
as high pressure builds N of the area in the wake of a tropical
wave.
Long period southerly swell will propagate toward the coast of
southern Mexico Sunday morning through Monday with seas building
to 7 to 9 ft, then gradually decaying through Tuesday.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of
Papagayo during the next several nights/mornings.
Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon
trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N
of the monsoon trough through Tuesday.
A new and more robust set of Southern Hemisphere swell is
forecast by wave model guidance to cross the equator this
morning, bringing seas to 9 ft along the Central American coast
this evening through Monday, decaying thereafter.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak 1012 mb low pressure centered near 12N98W is forecast to
slowly drift W through the weekend, possibly merging with the
tropical wave just to the W. Some slow development of this
low/tropical wave is anticipated through early next week.
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate NE winds persist N of the
monsoon trough, with moderate to locally fresh flow converging
into the monsoon trough from the SSW fueling scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms. No major changes in this weather
pattern are anticipated through early next week.
$$
CAM
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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