| |
KF5JRV > WX 14.08.17 08:14l 103 Lines 3700 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 775_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/13
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170813/1417Z 775@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130941
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 UTC Sun Aug 13 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Jova is centered near 20.4N 116.0W at
13/0900 UTC or 370 nm WSW of Cabo San Lucas, moving W at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm in the SW quadrant of Jova. Jova is
forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical
cyclone/remnant low by dawn on Monday, eventually dissipating by
Thursday morning. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends N from 06N100W through low pressure 1011
mb near 11N100W to 19N100W. The wave has slowed down and is
moving W at only around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is observed from 10N to 17N between 98W and
103W. Both the low and wave are expected to continue on a general
WNW track during the next few days. Gradual development of this
low/tropical wave is anticipated through early next week.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 09N84W to 10N94W
to low pressure 1011 mb near 11N100W to 12N103W, then resumes
from 14N120W to 12N130W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 08N
between 89W and 94W, N of 10N between 87W and 92W and within 120
nm either side of a line from 12N110W to 11N140W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Depression Jova.
Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the
vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula
through mid-week.
Long period southerly swell will propagate toward the coast of
southern Mexico until Monday with seas building to 7 to 9 ft in
these offshore waters. The swell will decay thereafter.
Fresh to strong northerly winds may pulse over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours
Thursday night through Saturday night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of
Papagayo through mid-week, increasing to fresh to strong
thereafter.
Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon
trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N
of the trough through Wednesday.
A robust set of Southern Hemisphere swell is forecast to bring
seas of 7 to 10 ft along the Central American coast tonight
through Monday, decaying thereafter.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge that dominates the waters N of
the monsoon trough is generating gentle to moderate NE winds to
the N of the trough. Model guidance indicates winds S of the
monsoon trough and N of 05N will increase to fresh to locally
strong by this evening and cause seas to build to between 7 and 9
ft. These conditions will generally persist between 110W and
130W through mid-week.
Model solutions diverge by the end of the week concerning the
possible development of several weak areas of low pressure along
the monsoon trough.
$$
CAM
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
