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KF5JRV > WX 14.08.17 13:03l 114 Lines 4435 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 845_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/14
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170814/1142Z 845@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140903
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 UTC Mon Aug 14 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Post-tropical Cyclone Jova is centered near 20N121W at 14/0900
UTC or about 630 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Jova is forecast to weaken
and dissipate by Thursday evening. See final NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more
details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 08N88W
to the N across Central America to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present N of 11N between 88W and 91W. Weak low
pressure may form along the southern portion of the wave early
this week, then dissipate.
A tropical wave extends N from 07N along 103W through 1010 mb
low pressure at 12.5N, moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N
between 100W and 105W. Both the low and wave are expected to
continue on a general WNW track during the next few days. Gradual
development of this low/tropical wave is anticipated through
early next week.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 09N93W to low
pressure 1010 mb near 12.5N103W to 16N111W to 13N125W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
found from 06N to 10N between 93W and 98W and within 120 nm
either side of a line from 15N110W to 11N126W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for information on
Post-tropical Cyclone Jova.
Otherwise, a gentle to moderate breeze will prevail in the
vicinity of the northern and central Baja California Peninsula
through mid week, increasing to moderate to fresh by the end of
the week as the pressure gradient tightens slightly.
Long period southerly swell are propagating toward the coast of
southern Mexico. Seas are peaking between 7 and 9 ft in the
offshore waters E of 100W. The swell will decay and seas will
begin to subside beginning tonight.
Fresh to strong northerly winds may pulse over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning hours
Thursday night through Saturday night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of
Papagayo through mid-week, then increase to fresh to strong
thereafter.
Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon
trough, with mainly light to gentle variable winds prevailing N
of the trough through Friday night.
Long period southerly swell and 6 to 9 ft seas will continue
across the region today, except 8 to 10 ft seas between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands. The swell will decay to below 8 ft by
Tuesday.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad surface ridge dominating the waters N of the monsoon
trough will weaken in response to low pressure passing to the
north through mid week. The weakening remnant low of Jova will
continue WSW before finally dissipating on Thursday. The weakened
ridge will allow moderate trade winds N of the monsoon trough
through mid week. Persistent moderate to fresh southwest winds
S of the monsoon trough have helped to create an area of 8 ft
seas S of Mexico from 11N to 16N between 108W and 120W. The winds
will subside by Tuesday evening and allow the seas to subside
below 8 ft. In addition to the remnant low of Jova, other weak
areas of low pressure will form along the monsoon trough. One is
associated with the tropical wave near 103W. This low will move
WNW and drag the monsoon trough northward as it gradually
develops. Expect bouts of scattered showers and thunderstorms
along the monsoon trough through mid week. Seas will be 5 to 6 ft
N of the monsoon trough, and 6 to 9 ft S of the monsoon trough
through mid week.
$$
CAM
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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