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KF5JRV > WX 25.08.17 13:44l 116 Lines 4594 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 1563_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWSNHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/25
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170825/1149Z 1563@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250902
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
902 UTC Fri Aug 25 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale Warning associated with the remnant low of Kenneth: The
remnant low of Kenneth was analyzed near 28N136W at 1009 mb. The
pressure gradient between the low and high pressure ridging to
the N and NE continues to support gale force winds in the NW
semicircle along with large seas of 10 to 14 ft. Gale conditions
are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong during the next 24
hours, with winds continuing to diminish to 20 kt or less by 48
hours along with any residual seas. Please refer to the High
Seas Forecast issued under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03
KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.
..TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...
A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 06N along 88W moving W
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection accompanies the tropical wave from 05N to 10N between
88W and 93W, and also from 11N to 14N between 86W and 90W. Model
guidance suggests that a surface low may develop along this
tropical wave during the next few days.
A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 11N along 103W/104W
moving W at around 10 kt. Only isolated convection is occurring
near the wave. This wave is forecast to become less defined
during the next day or so.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N87W to 10N96W to 14N114W
to 12N130W to low pressure near 11N138W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N
between 104W and 111W, and also from 09N to 12N between 113W and
123W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between
127W and 133W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NW to SE oriented low level trough will meander E to W across
the Baja California Peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California
through the upcoming weekend, with a weak surface low developing
intermittently along the trough over the central portion of the
Gulf of California. A NW to SE oriented ridge extends across the
Pacific waters just beyond 250 nm. The pressure gradient will
support a moderate NW breeze across the waters W of the Baja
California Peninsula through Sun, except becoming a fresh NW
breeze during the evenings within about 90 nm of the Pacific
Coast. Expect mainly 3 to 6 ft seas through the weekend. A weak
cold front will move SE across the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of
California on Mon night.
Otherwise in the Gulf of California, light to gentle southerly
flow will persist, except a brief moderate southerly breeze will
develop intermittently just S of the developing low pres over
the Gulf waters, roughly along 30N. A moderate NW breeze will
follow the cold front on Mon night, which should stall along
28.5N on Mon evening.
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle N drainage winds are forecast
through the weekend at night, with gentle onshore flow during the
day.
Strong southwesterly monsoon flow and long period cross-
equatorial swell, in the form 7 to 10 ft seas, will develop
across the waters W of 98W at about 250 nm seaward on Sun,
spreading toward coastal locations thereafter. By then a surface
low may have developed along the N extension of a tropical wave.
The low will move NW on Mon and Tue.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate nocturnal drainage is forecast
to begin on Sun night.
Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon
trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with
4 to 7 ft seas by early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Except as discussed in the special features paragraph, the
subtropical ridge extends from 32N130W to near 18N116W, and is
accompanied by moderate anticyclonic winds and 4 to 7 ft seas.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the
monsoon trough today, increasing to a strong breeze from roughly
06N to 11N between 98W and 118W on Sat, and expanding out from
05N to 12N between 97W and 120W on Sat night, with seas building
7 to 10 ft.
$$
Lewitsky
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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