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KF5JRV > WX 29.08.17 13:06l 108 Lines 4202 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 1844_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/29
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170829/1149Z 1844@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290917
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
918 UTC Tue Aug 29 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Weak and disorganized low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough
is located SW of Mexico near 16N105W moving W around 5 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm SW of
the coast of Mexico, although it is unclear if this was purely
diurnally driven convection that developed over SW Mexico before
propagating offshore. Additional convection is to the W along a
nearby tropical wave. It is not clear if there is a well defined
center, and earlier scatterometer data showed another circulation
more to the W along the tropical wave. Fresh to strong monsoonal
winds and building seas are occurring on the S through SW
portion and model guidance shows and expansion of these winds
wrapping around the NE side as the low potentially develops into
a tropical cyclone. In any case, fresh to near gale force winds
at a minimum will occur, including SW of Mexico where funneling
up along the coastline develops, and seas are forecast to build
to greater than 12 ft through mid-week. The low is forecast to
move NW to between 18N109W by early Wed, then 21N110W by early
Thu, continuing NW offshore of the Baja California Peninsula
thereafter. Increasing winds and seas will propagate toward and
through the entrance to the Gulf of California as the low moves
NW.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed N of 10N along 111W moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 11N to
18N between 106W and 113W.
A tropical wave is analyzed from 11N to 20N along 119W moving W
at around 10 kt. Associated convection is analyzed along the
monsoon trough as described below.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N83W to 09N88W to 16N98W
to low pressure near 16N105W to 15N115W to 12N130W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to
09N between 86W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is from
11N to 15N between 114W and 122W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the special features section for developing low
pressure SW of Mexico near 16N105W.
Otherwise, a ridge axis extends toward the northern offshore
waters just W of 120W supporting gentle to moderate NW flow
across the open waters W of the Baja California Peninsula. Winds
in the Gulf of California are light and variable with seas 2 ft
or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance.
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light offshore nocturnal flow is
expected this week into the upcoming weekend, with light to
gentle onshore flow during the day.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Weak and transient low pressure is near 10N89W. This low will
move W of the area by mid-week.
In the Gulf of Papagayo, gentle offshore nocturnal flow is
expected this week into the upcoming weekend.
Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon
trough through the week and into the upcoming weekend, while
moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the
monsoon trough axis. Long period southerly cross-equatorial
swell, in the form of 5 to 7 ft seas will gradually subside
through mid-week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The remnant trough of Kenneth in the far NW corner is finally
dissipating while high pressure ridging dominates the remainder
of the waters W of 120W. The ridging will support moderate to
locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas through the week and into
the upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten
offshore of central California later in the week which may build
and send down fresh 8 ft seas into the area N of 26N between 122W
and 133W.
$$
Lewitsky
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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