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KF5JRV > WX 30.08.17 13:03l 115 Lines 4672 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 1897_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/30
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VA3TOK<VE3UIL<VE1MPF<N9PMO<NS2B<
KF5JRV
Sent: 170830/1135Z 1897@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300858
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
858 UTC Wed Aug 30 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is centered near 18.5N
108.8W at 30/0900 UTC or about 256 nm W of Manzanillo, Mexico or
about 269 nm SSE of the southern tip of Baja California moving
NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 210 nm in the
SW semicircle. Additional very deep convection, numerous moderate
and isolated strong, is from 17N to 24N within 120 nm SW of
Mexico and across adjacent land areas. This area is underneath
upper level diffluence and convergence over the mountainous areas
with the deep southerly flow is helping to sustain and develop
convection. This system is forecast to become a tropical cyclone
during the next 24 hours while continuing to the NW toward Baja
California Sur, gradually strengthening thereafter. This system
may become a minimal hurricane prior to the approach to the
southern tip of Baja California early Thu. Very large seas will
propagate toward and up through the entrance to the Gulf of
California creating hazardous conditions. Large and dangerous
swells are likely to impact the coast of SW Mexico, and either
sides of the Baja California Peninsula, with dangerous and life-
threatening rainfall possible across nearby coastal locations.
Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed from western Costa Rica near 09N85W
northward across eastern Honduras and into the NW Caribbean Sea,
moving W at 15 kt. Only isolated convection is present noted near
the tropical wave axis.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 13N97W to
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E near 18N108.5W to 13N120W
to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 04N to 09N and E of 80W, including the Gulf of Panama, and
within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough axis between 111W and
118W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between
90W and 99W, and also within 120 nm SE of the axis between 118W
and 124W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the special features section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E positioned SW of Mexico.
A ridge axis extends toward the northern offshore waters just W
of 120W supporting gentle to moderate NW flow across the open
waters W of the Baja California Peninsula. Winds in the Gulf of
California are currently light and variable with seas 2 ft or
less, except 4 to 6 ft near the entrance. Conditions at the
entrance to the Gulf of California, and over the southern portion
of the Gulf will drastically begin to worsen as Potential
Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E approaches.
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light offshore nocturnal flow is
expected this week and the upcoming weekend, with light to
gentle onshore flow during the day.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
In the Gulf of Papagayo, gentle offshore nocturnal flow is
expected through the remainder of the week, becoming gentle to
moderate this weekend.
Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon
trough, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are
expected S of the monsoon trough. Long period southerly cross-
equatorial swell, in the form of 5 to 7 ft seas will gradually
subside through Thursday.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak ridging dominating the waters W of 120W will support
moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas through the
remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend.
An exception will be across the waters N of 25N between 124W and
134W where seas of 7 to 8 ft in northerly swell will arrive
through the end of the week as fresh to strong NW to N winds
offshore of Point Conception, California develop. Also, cross-
equatorial southerly swell will breach the equator building seas
to 7 to 9 ft S of the monsoon trough between 120W and 135W
through the early part of the upcoming weekend.
$$
Lewitsky
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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