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KF5JRV > WX 31.08.17 13:06l 120 Lines 4707 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 1952_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 8/31
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170831/1135Z 1952@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310854
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
854 UTC Thu Aug 31 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 21.3N 109.4W at 31/0900
UTC or about 100 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico moving NNW at
7 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is within 210 nm in the NE quadrant,
within 150 nm in the SE and NW quadrants, and also within 180 nm
in the SW quadrant. This convection is resulting in very heavy
rainfall creating the potential for life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Very large seas and swells will continue to
impact Baja California and the W central coast of Mexico,
spreading northward into the Gulf of California. Lidia is
forecast to strengthen through early Fri as it continues to
approach the southern tip of Baja California, then is forecast to
weaken as it continues to the NNW along or inland over the Baja
California peninsula, becoming a remnant low by early Sun. Please
see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is N of 10N along 91W moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 10N E
of 90W, including across the Gulfs of Fonseca and Papagayo. Model
guidance indicates that the tropical wave may catch up to a
developing area of low pressure near 12N101W by early Sat.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 11N90W to 16N106W,
then resumes from 17N110W to 14N121W to low pressure near 12N134W
to 00N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough axis between 107W and
117W.
In addition, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm W of a line from 06N103W to 18N103W. This
convection may be associated with the remnants of a tropical
wave, enhanced by deep southerly flow around the outer
circulation of Lidia.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the special features section for information on
Tropical Storm Lidia located S of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.
Elsewhere, a ridge axis extends toward the northern offshore
waters just W of 120W supporting mainly moderate NW to N flow
across the open waters W of the Baja California Peninsula outside
of the influence of Lidia.
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light offshore nocturnal flow is
expected through the upcoming weekend and into early next week,
with light to gentle onshore flow during the day.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
In the Gulf of Papagayo, gentle offshore nocturnal flow is
expected through the remainder of the week, pulsing to moderate
to fresh Sat night and Sun night.
Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon
trough, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are
expected S of the monsoon trough. Seas will be mainly 4 to 6 ft
in mixed cross-equatorial southerly swell, as well as some long
period NW swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A nearly stationary 1010 mb low center is analyzed along the
monsoon trough near 12N134W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm in the NE quadrant and 150 nm
in the SW quadrant of the low. This low is forecast to linger and
change little during the next few days.
Farther N, northerly swells generated from strong winds off the
coast of California are beginning to propagate into the
discussion area N of 29N between 121W and 126W, as measured by
earlier altimeter passes which showed seas near 8 ft. This swell
will subside by the start of the upcoming weekend.
Cross-equatorial southerly swell is breaching the equator and
will hang around near the equator through the start of the
upcoming weekend with seas up to 7 to 9 ft. Another area of
southerly swell to 8 ft lingers just S of the monsoon trough
thanks to moderate to fresh flow. These seas will subside to less
than 8 ft this weekend.
Otherwise, weak ridging dominating the waters W of 120W will
support moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft through
the next several days.
$$
Lewitsky
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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