| |
KF5JRV > WX 01.09.17 12:38l 97 Lines 3688 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 2027_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 9/1
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170901/1115Z 2027@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010929
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 1 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 23.8N 111.0W at 2 am PDT
NW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows convective
bands wrapping around Lidia, over the southern Baja peninsula
and surrounding waters of the Gulf of California and the Pacific
Ocean. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within
180 nm east and 90 nm west of the center. This convection is
resulting in very heavy rainfall creating the potential for life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides. Very large seas and
swells will continue to impact Baja California, NW Mexico, and
spreading northward into the Gulf of California. Lidia will move
roughly parallel to the Baja peninsula and gradually weaken
through Sun, then become a remnant low north of 29N. Hazardous
marine conditions will continue to impact NW Mexico, the Baja
California Peninsula, and the Gulf of California this weekend.
Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details, and for the
Public Advisory please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is along 98W N of 07N, moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is E of the wave
offshore the Mexican coast north of 13N between 94W and 87W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 16N109W, then resumes
from 17N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 13N to 15N between 115W and 120W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the special features section for information on
Tropical Storm Lidia moving near the southern part of the Baja
California Peninsula.
Elsewhere, a weak ridge axis extends W of 120W supporting gentle
to moderate NW flow in the open waters W of the Baja California
outside of the influence of Lidia.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon trough,
while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S
of the monsoon trough. Seas will be mainly 4 to 6 ft in mixed
cross-equatorial southerly swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak low pressure area is analyzed near 13N132W. The pressure
gradient between it and higher pressure to the N will maintain
moderate NE trades in NW waters this weekend.
North swell over the far northern portion of the area N of 30N
between 120W and 125W is producing occasional seas to 8 ft. This
swell will subside to less than 8 ft today.
Cross-equatorial southerly swell near the equator will persist
through the weekend with 7-9 ft seas expected. Another area of
southerly swell to 8 ft lingers just S of the monsoon trough
thanks to moderate to fresh flow. These seas will subside to
less than 8 ft this weekend.
Otherwise, weak ridging dominating the waters W of 120W will
support moderate to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft through
the next several days.
$$
Mundell
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
