| |
KF5JRV > WX 02.09.17 12:43l 96 Lines 3767 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 2090_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacfic WX 9/2
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170902/1127Z 2090@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020918
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 2 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Tropical Storm Lidia is centered SE of Punta Eugenia near 27.2N
113.6W at 2 am PDT moving NW at 11 kt, with estimated minimum
central pressure of 994 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered
moderate to strong convection within 90 nm NE of the center, and
scattered moderate isolated strong convection elsewhere from 25N
to 29N between 110W and 115W. Very heavy rainfall along the Baja
California peninsula has the potential for life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. Lidia will move NW along the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula today, then move offshore
and weaken to a depression tonight. Please see the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
for more details, and for the Public Advisory please see the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed N of 10N along 89W, moving westward
at 10 to 15 kt. Convection associated with the wave is inland
over Guatemala and southern Mexico.
A tropical wave is analyzed N of 10N along 102W with a 1010 mb
surface low along on the wave axis near 15N102W. The system is
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed within 30 nm W and 120 nm E of the wave.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 13N104W, then
resumes from 17N123W to 16N128W to 13N132W to 12N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm N of the
trough between 92W and 97W. Similar convection is occurring in
the gap between monsoon trough segments over an area from 11N to
16N between 105W and 117W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to special features for information on Tropical Storm
Lidia. A weak ridge will build eastward along 23N Sun as Lidia
exits the area, with a moderate to fresh NW breeze setting up
across the open waters W of the Baja California Peninsula.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate offshore nocturnal flow is
expected through Monday. Model guidance indicates an early
season cold front reaching southern Mexico could initiate very
strong gap winds Thu night and Fri.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Gentle to locally moderate offshore nocturnal
flow is expected tonight, becoming moderate to fresh Sun night.
Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon
trough axis through early next week, while moderate to locally
fresh southerly winds are expected to the S of the trough axis.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Broad cyclonic flow dominates most of the area N of 12N between
104W and 126W. Abundant deep moisture throughout this region has
very dry air aloft NW of the area based on water vapor imagery.
Mostly gentle NE winds exist N of the monsoon trough W of 126W
with 5-6 ft seas. Fresh southerly monsoonal winds and seas of 5-
8 ft are observed S of 15N between 100W and 130W primarily in
mixed SE and SW cross-equatorial swell. The swell is forecast to
begin to dissipate on Sunday allowing for seas to slowly subside
into early next week.
$$
Mundell
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
