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KF5JRV > WX 03.09.17 15:24l 84 Lines 3114 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 2153_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 9/3
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170903/1415Z 2153@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030922
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 3 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is from 10N103W through a 1012 mb pressure near
13N102W to 17N101W, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection
is noted.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 1012 mb low pressure
near 13N102W to 1012 mb low pressure near 16N128W to beyond
12N140W. No significant convection is noted.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Although Lidia is now considered to be a post-tropical cyclone
lacking deep convection, strong winds still persist NE of the
cyclone center. Lidia is centered near 29.6N 116.3W off the
coast of Baja California Norte at 2 am PDT, moving NW at 7 kt.
Estimated pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. Scatterometer data at 0400 UTC showed fresh
to strong southerly winds N of 29N in the Gulf of California,
with max seas estimated at 8-10 ft. Lidia will weaken further
today as it moves north of the area, with winds diminishing to
20 kt or less and seas less than 8 ft across the region. Please
see the final NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.
A weak ridge will build E of the area through early next week,
supporting gentle to moderate northwest breezes and slight seas
across the region north of 20N into early next week. Moderate to
fresh northerly flow is possible off Baja California Norte by
Tue as the ridge is squeezed between a trough off southern
California and lower pressure over the Colorado river delta.
Farther south, fresh overnight gap winds are possible through
the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting tonight through early next week.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate to locally fresh offshore breeze
expected tonight and Sun night.
Otherwise, light and variable flow is expected N of the monsoon
trough through early next week, while moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds expected S of the monsoon trough axis.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak ridging will slowly build across roughly 24N/25N through
early next week, maintaining light to gentle breezes and slight
seas north of 15N. Farther south, expect moderate trades north
of the monsoon trough, with moderate to fresh SE winds south of
10N shifting SW into the monsoon trough from the south. Long
period SE cross-equatorial swell with 6 to 8 ft combined seas
will continue to move as far north as 05N through Mon, but
decaying below 8 ft Tue.
$$
Mundell
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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