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KF5JRV > WX 12.09.17 13:09l 103 Lines 4050 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 3827_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 9/12
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170912/1134Z 3827@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120946
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Sep 12 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression 15-E centered at 15.8N 115.1W at 0900 UTC
moving W or 260 degrees at 13 knots. The minimum central
pressure is estimated 1006 mb. The maximum sustained winds are
20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt mainly over the NW semicircle.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently
observed 210 nm over the W quadrant of the depression. The
depression is forecast to move W and weaken to a remnant low in
a couple of days. For additional information refer to NHC
forecast advisories under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ25
KNHC/MIATCMEP5.
A surface low is forecast to develop along the monsoon trough
near 14N104W this afternoon, and move to near 15N104W tonight,
with possible tropical cyclone development. Another surface low
is forecast to develop further W along the monsoon trough near
17N109W on Thu, and move NE with the two lows, or possibly
tropical cyclones, merging near 20N107W on Fri. Strong southerly
flow, with 8-12 ft seas, is forecast initially SE of the lows
and monsoon trough axis, roughly within the area from 07N-12N
between 101W-113W. By Wed night, expect strong to near gale
force winds within 120 nm of a line from 18N103W to 12N111W with
seas conservatively building to 10-15 FT. This merged tropical
low, or possible tropical cyclone, will then continue N across
the central Mexican offshore waters reaching near the entrance
to the Gulf of California on Sat accompanied by at least near
gale force winds and seas conservatively to 20 ft.
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...
A 1010 mb low is embedded in the monsoon trough at 11N134W with
isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within 30 nm
of the low.
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends WNW off the coast of Nicaragua at
13N87W to 14N95W to 13N110W, then turns NW through Tropical
Depression 15-E, then turns SW to 13N121W, then W to 12N135W,
then Sw to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted E of 81W and within 240 nm either side of
a line from 12N90W to 13N102W to 10N130W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NW to SE oriented trough will meander E to W across the Baja
California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface
low developing intermittently along the trough axis over the far
northern Gulf waters, and perhaps also over the central Gulf of
California. A W to E orientated ridge will meander from 23N116W
to 21N110W through the middle of the week, with a moderate W to
NW breeze forecast across the EPAC waters S and W of the Baja
California Peninsula through Thu night, with 5 to 6 ft seas.
Gulf of California...Light, mostly NW winds expected through
Wed.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly flow is
expected through sunrise this morning, with seas building to 12
ft downstream of the gulf waters near 14.5N95.5W. Only moderate
noctural drainage flow forecast tonight.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow expected
this week. Combined seas are currently 6 to 8 ft primarily due to
cross-equatorial swell that is forecast to subside today with
seas forecast less than 8 ft tonight.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See special features paragraph. A ridge extends from 32N138W to
23N116W with light to locally moderate anticyclonic flow
expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W through
the middle of the week.
$$
Nelson
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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