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KF5JRV > WX 13.09.17 13:04l 106 Lines 4268 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 3897_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 9/13
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<LU4ECL<PI8LAP<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VA3TOK<VE3UIL<N9PMO<NS2B<
KF5JRV
Sent: 170913/1135Z 3897@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130930
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 13 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression 15-E centered at 14.9N 119.4W at 0900 UTC
moving W or 270 degrees at 08 knots. The minimum central
pressure is estimated 1004 mb. The maximum sustained winds are
30 kt with gusts to 40 kt mainly over the N semicircle.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently
observed within 210 nm over the NW semicircle of the depression.
Although the depression is experiencing upper level wind shear,
it is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm later today
and continue westward maintaining tropical storm strength through
the upcoming weekend. For additional information refer to NHC
forecast advisories under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ25
KNHC/MIATCMEP5.
A 1008 mb surface low is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
15N103W and is accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong
convection within 150 nm over the SE and within 90 nm over the
NW semicircles of the center. Environmental conditions are
favorable for this system to strengthen to a tropical cyclone
as it moves northward and inland Mexico near 18N late tonight or
early Thu. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
expected to spread inland over SW Mexico and could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
A 1006 mb surface low is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
15N111W, and is accompanied by scattered moderate isolated
strong convection currently within 60 nm either side of a line
from 14N110W to 17N114W. Environmental conditions are favorable
for this system to strengthen to a tropical cyclone as it moves
northward this week across the offshore waters between 105W and
112W. At the least, expect strong to near gale force cyclonic
winds, and seas conservatively to 20 ft, and a large area of
thunderstorms to reach near the entrance to the Gulf of
California on Sat.
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...
A 1008 mb low is embedded in the monsoon trough near 11N135W
with scattered moderate isolated strong convection observed
within 150 nm of the low.
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends W-NW off the coast of Nicaragua at
11N86W to 13N90W through an embedded surface low at 15N103W to a
second embedded surface low at 15N111W to Tropical Depression 15-
E at 14.9N119.4W, then the monsoon trough turns SW to 11N126W,
then W through another embedded surface low at 11N135W, then
dips Sw to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted to the N of 06N E of 81W, and elsewhere
within 75 nm either side of a line from 13N105W to 08N131W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A NW to SE oriented trough will meander E to W across the Baja
California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface
low developing intermittently along the trough axis over the far
northern Gulf waters. A W to E orientated ridge will meander
from 23N116W to 21N110W through Thu night, then retract W on Fri
as the previously described surface low, or tropical cyclone
approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula this weekend.
Gulf of California...Light, mostly NW winds expected through Fri
with large southerly swells arriving across the southern
waters on Fri night ahead an approaching tropical low.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow expected through the
upcoming weekend with 6 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-
equatorial swell that is forecast to subside below 8 ft on Fri
night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 32N138W to 23N116W with light to
locally moderate anticyclonic flow expected elsewhere N of the
monsoon trough and W of 115W through the upcoming weekend.
$$
Nelson
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
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