| |
KF5JRV > WX 15.09.17 13:04l 102 Lines 4138 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 4050_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 9 /15
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170915/1140Z 4050@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151004
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 15 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The remnants of Max 15/0900 UTC are a 1005 mb low pressure
center that is near 17.0N 98.0W, inland, in Mexico. The low
center is moving ENE, 60 degrees, 04 knots. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N to
17N between 98W and 103W. Please read the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
for more details.
The center of Tropical Storm Norma at 15/0900 UTC is near 18.6N
109.7W, moving N, 350 degrees, 02 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speeds are
45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong within 90 nm S semicircle and 60 nm N semicircle. Please
read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.
The center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E at 15/0900 UTC is
near 15.9N 124.5W, moving W, 270 degrees, 04 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convective
precipitation: SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM
OF CENTER IN W QUADRANT. Please read the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...
A 1010 mb low pressure is near 12N133W in the monsoon trough.
S to SW winds of 20 to 25 kt are within 180 nm of the SE
semicircle with seas to 9 ft. The low is expected to weaken
gradually through Saturday with seas subsiding to less than 8
feet by Saturday night.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 12N93W...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N129W TO LOW
PRES 1010 MB NEAR 12N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
360 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 97W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the special features section above for more
information on Tropical Storm Max and Tropical Storm Norma.
A NW to SE oriented trough will meander E to W across the Baja
California Peninsula and the Gulf of California with a surface
low developing intermittently along the trough axis across the
far northern Gulf waters. A northwest to southeast orientated
ridge will meander from 25N118W to 22N112W tonight...then
shift W on Fri night as Norma approaches the southern tip of the
Baja Peninsula this weekend.
Gulf of California...Light and variable winds expected through
Fri with large southerly swells arriving across the southern
waters late Fri night or early Sat well ahead of Norma.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is expected through the
upcoming weekend with 6 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-
equatorial swell that is forecast to subside below 8 ft late
Friday into Saturday. The monsoon trough has been lifting
northward the past few days and will move to near the coast
across Panama...Costa Rica...and Nicaragua...then potentially
inland farther north to Guatemala. Abundant moisture converging
near the trough will allow for scattered heavy showers and
tstms that could produce very heavy rainfall and lead to flash
flooding and mudslides across coastal zones and large river
discharges early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N142W, to 28N136W and 20N133W. Light to locally
moderate anticyclonic flow is expected elsewhere N of the
monsoon trough and W of 115W through the upcoming weekend.
$$
mt
73, Scott kf5jrv
KF5JRV @ KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
