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KF5JRV > WX 16.09.17 13:31l 88 Lines 3757 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 4161_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 9/16
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170916/1148Z 4161@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161005
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 16 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Norma at 16/0900
UTC is near 19.0N 110.2W, or about 45 nm ENE of Socorro Island,
and about 235 nm S of Cabo San Lucas Mexico. Norma is moving N,
360 degrees, 0 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with
gusts to 80 knots. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate
to isolated strong within 180 nm of the center in the E
semicircle, and within 90 nm of the center in the W semicircle.
Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.
The center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E at 16/0900 UTC is
near 15.8N 126.0W, or about 1000 nm WSW of the southern tip of
Baja California. The depression is moving W, 260 degrees, 2
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35
knots. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong
within 75 nm of the center in the N quadrant. scattered mdoerate
to isolated strong within 75 nm of the center in the W quadrant.
scattered moderate within 75 nm to 180 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
None.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through Costa Rica near 09N84W to
07N101W and 08N108W. It resumes from 13N129W to a 1011 mb low
pressure center that is near 13N134W, to 11N140W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 360
nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 98W eastward.
Scattered to numerous strong from 15N to 17N between 98W and
101W, along the coast of Mexico. scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 13N to 18N between 118w and 122w, and within 90 nm
of the 1011 mb low pressure center in the N semicircle.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the special features section for more
information about Hurricane Norma.
Gulf of California...Light and variable winds are forecast
during the weekend and for the first few days of the next week.
Large southerly swells will be arriving across the southern
waters during the next 24 hours, before the arrival of Norma
from the south.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow is expected through the
upcoming weekend with 6 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-
equatorial swell that is forecast to subside to less than 8 feet
tonight.
The monsoon trough will lift northward slowly during the next
few days. It will reach near the coast of Nicaragua by midday on
Tuesday, and potentially inland to Guatemala by Wednesday
midday. Abundant moisture along the trough will allow for
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms, that may produce
heavy rainfall, and lead to flash floods and mudslides across
coastal zones and large river discharges early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb
high pressure center that is near 33N144W to 24N122W. Light to
locally moderate anticyclonic flow is expected elsewhere N of
the monsoon trough and W of 115W today and tomorrow.
$$
mt
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