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KF5JRV > WX 22.09.17 12:43l 99 Lines 4365 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 4532_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 9/22
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 170922/1117Z 4532@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220944
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 UTC Fri Sep 22 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A broad and elongated area of monsoonal low pressure persists
along the southwest coast and coastal waters of Mexico this
morning. A weak 1007 mb surface low pressure center is analyzed
within this broad area of low pressure near 16.5N104.5W. An area
of associated fresh to strong SW monsoonal winds is evident from
08N to 12N between 110W and 116W. Convergent monsoonal winds
continue to produce vigorous convection along the coast of mexico
between Cabo Corrientes and Chiapas and also along the coast of
Guatemala. Computer model guidance continues to show that the low
will shift slowly NW and gradually become better organized
during the next several days. The area of vigorous convection
will continue to plague parts of southern Mexico and Central
America with heavy rains during the next several days.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough stretches across the entire basin from NW
Colombia near 09N73W TO 08N79W to 13N90W to low pres 1007 mb near
16.5N104.5W to 14N115W to 12N119W to low pres 1012 mb near
11N137W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen within 60 nm NE and 210 nm SW of the trough
axis between 87W and 96W, from 16N to 20N between 105W and 108W
and from 07N to 11N between 135W and 140W. Scattered moderate
convection is present along and up to 210 nm S of the trough axis
between 97W and 133W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends SE across the northern portions of the
discussion area to the central part of Baja California near 26N.
An cold front pushing south into northern waters curves west from
31N116W to 27.5N125W to 30N138W. The cold front is producing
fresh to strong SW winds in the northern part of the Gulf of
California. These winds are expected to linger a while longer
this morning until the front departs to the east, with associated
seas of 5-7 ft north of 29N. As the high pressure behind the
dissipating front builds SE into the area during the next couple
of days, NW winds will freshen slightly west of Baja California
Norte, while little influence from the high will be seen south of
29N in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, the possible
development of low pressure along the southern coast of Mexico
will increase winds and seas between 101W and 117W the next few
days.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
An active monsoon trough following the coast of Central America
from Guatemala to Panama will remain a focus for active
convection over the coastal waters during the next few days.
Expect SW winds south of the trough to strengthen gradually to
20-25 knots through Saturday. Farther south, gentle to moderate
south to southwest winds are expected to persist south of 05N
through the weekend. Long period SE swell from the Southern
Hemisphere will maintain seas west of Ecuador and south of 02S
around 8 ft today before the swell decay and seas subside below 8
ft.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The post-tropical remnant low of Norma is centered near 22N116W
as a swirl of low to mid level clouds. Winds are estimated to be
20 kt near the center. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are confined to the west
quadrant within 270 nm of the center of the low. The low will
drift slowly SE and weaken into a trough by Saturday morning.
NW swell generated by strong N to NW winds north of the area are
producing combined seas to 8 ft north of 25N between 117W and
127W. This area of combined seas is expected to subside below 8
ft by this evening. Another weaker round of NW swell associated
with a cold front west of California is expected to arrive
tonight. High pressure centered well N of the area and lower
pressure associated with the monsoon trough will maintain
moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds west of 120W through
the weekend.
$$
CAM
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