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KF5JRV > WX 27.09.17 12:44l 74 Lines 2681 Bytes #999 (0) @ NWAR
BID : 4811_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: Tulsa NWS WX Forecast 9/27
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<F1OYP<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 170927/1129Z 4811@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
FXUS64 KTSA 271052
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
552 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread light showers will continue across NE OK this morning
while ceilings have already shown an increase into far NE OK. This
trend should continue southward through the morning w/ improving
flight levels. Further south a period of low MVFR to IFR ceilings
will spread across SE OK through western AR before improving by
late morning to mid afternoon. VFR conditions are currently
forecast for all sites overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows subtropical moisture plume continues to
stream northward across much of the southern plains into the
upper Midwest. At the same time, drier air lagging behind cold
front will continue to surge southeast through the day while upper
level forcing increasingly becomes focused more to our west
nearer the cutoff low over Arizona. Net result should be an
overall decrease in precip coverage through the day, though CAM
guidance continues to suggest convection developing along the
surface boundary this afternoon. Highest precip chances remain
confined to parts of northeast OK through 18z, with minimal threat
of heavy rainfall. Thunder chances most likely will be confined
to the afternoon period near the aforementioned sfc boundary.
Precip and clouds along with falling dew points will keep temps
considerably cooler today across parts of northeast OK, with some
location likely remaining in the 60s.
Waning influence of subtropical moisture plume with rising mid
level heights and a drier airmass will result in dry forecast
after tonight, with temperatures remaining close to normal into
the weekend. Southwest low will likely have little to no impact
this far east as it lifts to the northeast. Increasing mid level
heights and south winds will result in warmer temps for next week,
potentially significantly above normal later in the week.
GFS/Canadian push a boundary into parts of the area Mon/Tue which
lends some uncertainty to the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 58 76 57 / 60 10 10 10
FSM 83 63 81 59 / 30 10 10 0
MLC 78 61 79 59 / 40 20 20 10
BVO 69 55 75 55 / 70 10 10 10
FYV 73 58 76 53 / 30 10 10 0
BYV 74 56 76 53 / 20 10 10 0
MKO 74 59 78 57 / 50 10 10 10
MIO 70 55 75 54 / 50 0 10 0
F10 72 59 77 56 / 60 20 20 10
HHW 86 66 83 63 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
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