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KF5JRV > WX 03.10.17 12:45l 95 Lines 4010 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 5170_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 10/3
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 171003/1122Z 5170@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030903
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 UTC Tue Oct 3 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Low pressure of 1004 mb is located south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec near 13.5N95W. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection was noted within 90 nm west semicircle of the
low center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted elsewhere from 12N to 17N between 91W and 101W. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some additional
development over the next couple of days while the system moves
slowly westward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this
low pressure a medium chance of formation through 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more
information on the potential for development of this low.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 14N92W to 1004 mb low pres near
13.5N95W to 12N110W to 13N117W to 1010 mb low pres near 13N127W
to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted from 06N to 10N between 82W and 87W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See Special Features above for more details on low pressure south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The combination of winds associated
with the developing low pressure and long period SW swell will
generate a large area of seas of 8 to 12 ft or possibly higher S
of 14N between 90W and 130W late on Wednesday. This swell will
reach the offshore waters of Mexico, south of Cabo Corrientes
late Wednesday into Thursday.
Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the waters west of the Baja California
Peninsula producing gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas
of 4 to 5 ft. Northerly swell propagating into the waters west
of Baja California Norte, will subside to 7-8 ft today.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
An active monsoon trough is currently across parts of Central
America and adjacent waters with clusters of moderate to strong
convection. The trough will remain close enough to the coast,
either inland or just offshore, to produce additional active
convection over portions of Central America as well as the
adjacent coastal waters during the next few days, with locally
heavy rain possible.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are
expected to affect the waters beyond 200 nm off the coast from
Nicaragua to Guatemala through Wednesday. Winds and seas will
also increase across the offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica
Wednesday night into Thursday. The arrival of long period SW
swell early Thursday will help build seas to 8 to 12 ft offshore
central America the remainder of the work-week.
Cross equatorial SW swell, with periods of 20 to 22 seconds are
forecast to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands tonight, building seas to 7 to 8 ft by Wednesday night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1023 mb centered N of the area near 35N139W
extends a ridge southeast to near 22N120W. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds N of 15N W of 130W. Northerly
swell propagating into the northern waters has built seas 8 to
11 ft over this area as far south as 24N between 118W and 131W.
Seas associated to this swell are forecast to subside below 8 ft
by early Wednesday.
Cross equatorial southerly swell will spread across the waters
south of 02N between 105W and 135W today, with seas building to
8 to 10 ft. This swell will reach as far north as 15N between
88W and 130W by late Wednesday.
$$
AL
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