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KF5JRV > WX 04.10.17 12:45l 89 Lines 3607 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 5233_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 10/4
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 171004/1118Z 5233@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040900
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 UTC Wed Oct 4 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
At 04/0900 UTC, recently developed Tropical Storm Ramon was
centered near 14.3N 96.0W, moving toward the west at 8 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Estimated
minimum sea level pressure is 1002 mb. Ramon is a small system
with shear keeping much of the convection to the west of the
center of circulation. Numerous moderate to strong convection was
noted within 120 nm west semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted elsewhere from 11N to 16N between
94W and 100W. Ramon is currently forecast to continue on a
westward track maintaining its 40 kt intensity. For more
information on Ramon, please refer to the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 13N98W to 1010 mb low pres near
13N122W to 11N128W to 1012 mb low pres near 12.5N135W to 12N140W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 120W and 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See Special Features above for more details on Tropical Storm
Ramon.
Elsewhere, outside of the influence of Ramon, a ridge dominates
the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula producing gentle
to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft. Northerly
swell propagating into the waters west of Baja California Norte,
will subside to 6 to 7 ft today.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong SW to W winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are
expected to affect the waters beyond 250 nm off the coast from
Nicaragua to Guatemala by Wednesday. As low pressure develops in
the western Caribbean Sea late Wednesday and Thursday, winds will
increase across the offshore waters from Panama northward to
Nicaragua to 20 to 30 kt by Thursday. The combination of Long
period cross- equatorial SW swell with wind driven waves will
increase seas over these waters to near 15 ft. The potential
exists for dangerous breaking surf along the coast from Panama to
Nicaragua.
The combination of enhanced monsoonal flow and the developing
area of low pressure over the southwest Caribbean will increase
the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of Central America
the next several days. This heavy rain will bring the potential
for life threatening flash floods and mudslides.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1025 mb centered N of the area near 36N140W
extends a ridge southeast to near 21N114W. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon
trough and west of 125W. Northerly swell affecting the northern
waters continues to subside. Seas of 8 ft are currently found
north 29N between 122W and 129W. Seas over this area will subside
below 8 ft today. A fresh set of northwesterly swell will enter
the northwest waters Thursday. Seas associated to this swell will
build to 8 ft northwest of a line from 30N138W to 29N140W by
late Thursday night.
$$
AL
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