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KF5JRV > WX 05.10.17 13:05l 86 Lines 3461 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 5279_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 10/5
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 171005/1122Z 5279@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050900
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
542 UTC Thu Oct 5 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
At 05/0900 UTC, Tropical Depression Ramon was downgraded to a
remnant low centered near 15.0N 102.5W, moving toward the WNW at
10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are down to 20 kt with gusts to
30 kt. Estimated minimum sea level pressure is 1008 mb. The
remnant low is forecast to dissipate today. For more information
on Ramon, please refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends across Central America to 14.5N92W to
the remnant low of Ramon near 15N102.5W to low pres near 12N119W
to low pres near 12N135W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between
84W and 93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 13N to 19N between 104W and 109W. Scattered moderate
is noted within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough between 132W
and 135W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The broad cyclonic circulation of a Central American Gyre is
helping to produce an atypical NW to N gap wind event into the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish below advisory
criteria this weekend as the Central American Gyre breaks down,
and the tropical system it helped spawn moves further northward
in the Gulf of Mexico.
Elsewhere, outside of the influence of the Central American
Gyre, a ridge dominates the waters west of the Baja California
Peninsula, will produce gentle to moderate northerly winds and
seas of 4 to 7 ft over the open waters through the weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The large circulation associated to a Central American Gyre has
lifted the monsoon trough northward over Central America. This
circulation has helped spawn Tropical Depression Sixteen in the
western Caribbean. This synoptic setup is helping produce a large
area of fresh to strong winds, with locally higher winds near
gale force, extending from Panama northward to Nicaragua. The
combination of long period cross equatorial SW swell and wind
driven waves is producing seas of 8 to 12 ft over the offshore
waters. The large area of winds will persist into late Friday.
This will help to build seas to 15 to 17 ft by Friday from
northern Panama northward to Nicaragua. The large seas will
create dangerous breaking surf along the coast over these areas.
The enhanced monsoonal flow will continue to advect copious
moisture into portions of Central America, where heavy rainfall
is likely into the weekend. This heavy rain will increase the
potential for life threatening flash floods and mudslides.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough and
west of 125W. A fresh set of NW swell will enter the NW waters
this evening. Seas associated with this swell will build to
between 8 and 9 ft NW of a line from 30N135W to 26N140W by late
Friday.
$$
AL
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