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KF5JRV > WX 06.10.17 12:45l 89 Lines 3515 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 5339_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 10/6
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<XE1FH<N9PMO<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 171006/1120Z 5339@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061022 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Oct 6 2017
...Corrected to add gale warning section
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...GALE WARNING...
Gale force winds developed in the offshore zone of Nicaragua and
NW Costa Rica as shown in the latest scatterometer data. Seas
range between 15 and 18 feet in that region. Winds will reach a
peak of 40 kt later this morning and then will gradually
diminish to below gale-force by early Saturday morning.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to low pres 1007 mb
centered near 16N105W to low pres 1010 mb centered near 12N115W
to 10N128W to low pres 1009 mb centered near 11N135W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 108W
and 119W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The broad cyclonic circulation constituting a Central American
Gyre is causing an atypical NW to N gap wind event over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Gap winds in Tehuantepec will gradually diminish
reaching below advisory levels by early Sunday morning due to
weakening of the Central American Gyre.
The gradient between low pressure along the Baja California
Peninsula and high pressure west of 120W will support gentle to
moderate N to NW winds through early Sunday. Seas during that
period will range between 5 to 7 feet. Otherwise, NW swell will
support seas of 8 to 10 ft N of 25N and W of Baja through
Tuesday morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Numerous strong convection and thunderstorms are in the offshore
zone of Guatemala and El Salvador associated with the large
monsoonal circulation of the Central American Gyre. To the east-
southeast of this area of convection, in the offshore zone of
Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica, latest scatterometer data show gale
force winds developed with seas ranging between 15 and 18 feet.
Winds will reach a peak of 40 kt later this morning and then
will gradually diminish to below gale-force by early Saturday
morning. Long period cross equatorial SW swell is generating sea
heights ranging from 8 to 11 feet in the waters from Panama to
Costa Rica forecast, which will start subsiding tonight. The
large seas will create dangerous breaking surf along the coast
in these areas.
The monsoonal flow will continue to support copious rain between
northern Costa Rica and Guatemala into the weekend. This
extremely heavy rainfall will produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough to
21N and west of 123W. A weak cold front over NW forecast waters
extending from 30N138W to 28N140W supports seas of 8 to 9 ft
west of the boundary. The front is forecast to dissipate
tonight, however seas are forecast to subside by late Saturday
morning. Otherwise, long period SW swell is maintaining seas
above 8 ft over all of the discussion area from 06N to 18N
between 79W and 117W. The long period swell will gradually decay
and seas in this area are expected to subside below 8 ft by
Sunday morning.
$$
Ramos
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