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KF5JRV > WX 15.10.17 16:03l 109 Lines 4689 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 5941_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX 10/15
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<PI8HGL<PI8BDG<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 171015/1442Z 5941@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.14
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150924
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 15 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:
A recent scatterometer pass provides observations of northerly
winds in the 20-30 kt range over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds
are forecast to further increase to minimal gale force by early
Monday morning as high pressure builds over the eastern slopes of
the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of
Mexico in the wake of a cold front moving across the region. This
gap wind event is expected to continue through at least midweek.
Seas will reach 13-15 ft during the overnight and early morning
hours when winds will peak near 40 kt.
A low pressure of 1007 mb remains embedded within the monsoon
trough near 15.5N116.5W. A recent ASCAT pass indicates winds of
20-25 kt within about 210 nm on the E semicircle of the low
center. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is within 75
nm NE quadrant of low. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 113W and
120W. This system is gradually becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical
depression to form during the next day or two while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There
is currently a high probability that this low will develop into
a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 90W N of 04N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Convection has diminished in association
with this wave, and now only a few showers are noted near the
wave axis.
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N89W to 07N102W to
13N108W to low pres near 15.5N116.5W to 10N125W to low pres near
10N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 11N between 93W and 100W, near 10N126W, and from 08N to
10N between 132W and 135W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see Special Features section above for information about
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A surface ridge extends across the
waters off Baja California producing gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 6-7 ft. Today and tonight seas will build to 8-10 ft
across the waters S of 20N and west of the Revillajijedo Islands
as the aforementioned low pressure moves west of the offshore
forecast waters. Otherwise, the ridge will remain in place
during the next few days with little change in winds and seas.
High pressure building over the Great Basin region will help to
strengthen winds over the northern Gulf of California early
Sunday, and continue through early Monday. The area of high
pressure will then shift eastward which will help to decrease
winds over this area.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh offshore winds will develop across the Papagayo
region tonight and continue through Tuesday with seas of 6-7 ft.
Light and variable winds and seas of 4-6 ft seas prevail N of
09N, while gentle to moderate SW to W winds and 5-7 ft seas are
currently observed across the area S of 09N. Little change is
expected with these marine conditions through Monday. Swells
originating in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (where a gale force gap
wind event is expected) will reach the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Savador building seas to 9-10 ft Monday night
and Tuesday.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see special features section above for more information
on low pressure centered near 15.5N116.5W. Elsewhere, high
pressure of 1035 mb centered NW of the area near 39N148W extends
a ridge southeast to near 25N115W. The pressure gradient has
relaxed over the northern forecast waters, and winds have
diminished to 20 kt or less. However, northerly swell continues
to propagate across these waters, with seas of 8 to 10 ft from
10N to 20N W of 120W, and west of a line from 30N122W to 20N130W.
The swell will continue to subside across the waters N of 20N W
of 120W today. Cross equatorial southwesterly swell will continue
to propagate across the south-central waters, particularly S of
15N between 100W-130W trough late Monday.
$$
GR
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