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KF5JRV > WX 28.07.18 13:04l 97 Lines 3589 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 17474_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific - Jul 28
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VE3CLG<KM8V<N9PMO<AB0AF<
KF5JRV
Sent: 180728/1115Z 17474@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.16
457
AXPZ20 KNHC 280912 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
912 UTC Sat Jul 28 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Tropical Depression Gilma centered near 15.1N 132.4W at 28/0900
UTC or 1360 nm E of South Point Hawaii moving W at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Gilma continues to
encounter strong NW shear, and scattered moderate convection is
relegated to within 120 nm in the southeast quadrant of the
depression. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed along 104W from 05N to 16N and is
estimated to be moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is currently noted within 180 nm
east of the wave axis.
A tropical wave extends along 120W from 08N to 16N moving W at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N
between 120W and 123W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N115W. Scattered
convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 85W and 90W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Latest reports from Salina Cruz indicate
fresh northerly gap flow is ongoing. This is due to local
drainage effects interacting with a relatively tight pressure
gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and
lower pressure far south into the tropical Pacific. These gap
winds will diminish by mid morning, but are likely again tonight
into early Sun.
Elsewhere a trough persists from Baja California Norte southward
to 20N120W. This is resulting in a fairly weak pressure pattern
across the open offshore waters of Mexico. Scatterometer data
show light to gentle NW winds in most areas, with moderate NW
winds funneling off the Cabo San Lucas. Seas are generally 3 to
5 ft. A persistent deep thermal low over the Colorado River
valley is supporting moderate southerly flow across the Gulf of
California. Strong and moist mid level NE flow across the Sierra
Madre Occidental has been supporting clusters of thunderstorms
over the inland mountains, some of which are making into the
southern Gulf of California.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA,
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate easterly flow is expected through
early early next week.
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the
monsoon trough into early next week accompanied by 5 to 7 ft
seas.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Depression Gilma and the tropical waves section for details on
two tropical waves. Otherwise, ridging will persist north of 20N
west of 120W through the period, supporting moderate N to NE
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in that area. Moderate to locally fresh
southerly forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough or roughly
10N for the next several days.
$$
Christensen
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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