| | KF5JRV > WX 29.07.18 15:46l 110 Lines 4271 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 17560_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific - Jul 29
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<SV1CMG<PI8BDG<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 180729/1415Z 17560@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.16
361
AXPZ20 KNHC 290953
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
952 UTC Sun Jul 29 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Gilma centered near 16.1N 137.0W at 29/0900
UTC or 1060 nm E of Hilo Hawaii moving W at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is observed within 240 nm in the east
semicircle of the depression. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends north of 10N along 90W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed off the
Central American coast and near where the tropical wave is
interacting with the monsoon trough within 120 nm off the coast
between 87W and 97W.
A tropical wave extends along 126W from 04N to 15N moving W at
10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N92W to low pressure
near 09N103W to 08N120W. Segments of the intertropical
convergence zone axis extend from 08N120W to 10N131W, from
08N125W to 14N133W, and from 13N137W to 11N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection within 120 nm off the
Central American coast between 87W and 97W, and within 180 nm in
the northwest quadrant of the low pressure near 09N102W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh gap winds will diminish
later this morning over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Weaker gap
winds are expected thereafter through early next week due to
diminishing high pressure north of the area. Looking ahead,
stronger gap winds are likely by mid week as higher pressure
builds north of the area and lower pressure develops to the
south.
Elsewhere a trough persists from Baja California Norte southwest
to 20N125W. This is resulting in a fairly weak pressure pattern
across the open offshore waters of Mexico. Scatterometer data
show light to gentle NW winds in most areas and 3 to 5 ft seas.
An earlier scatterometer pass indicated gentle to moderate SE
flow persisting along the length of the Gulf of California.
Little change is expected through early next week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA,
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate easterly flow is expected through
early next week.
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the
monsoon trough into early next week accompanied by 5 to 7 ft
seas.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the special features section for information on Tropical
Depression Gilma and the tropical waves section.
Convection is pulsing near broad low pressure centered west of
the offshore waters of Central America near 09N103W. The
estimated sea level pressure is 1010 mb. While there has been
steady development of this system over the past 12 to 18 hours,
there remains some uncertainty about its development over the
next couple of days. There is a moderate chance for tropical
cyclone development through the next five days. At any rate,
large clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing within
180 nm mainly in the northwest semicircle of the low pressure.
Expect fresh to occasionally strong winds in this convection,
with seas building to 8 ft through the next two to three days.
Otherwise, ridging will persist north of 20N west of 120W
through the period, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7
ft seas in that area. Moderate to locally fresh southerly
forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough or roughly 10N for the
next several days.
$$
Christensen
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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