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KF5JRV > WX 04.08.18 13:27l 141 Lines 5790 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 17987_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Aug 4
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<EA2RCF<PI8BDG<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 180804/1115Z 17987@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
688
AXPZ20 KNHC 040932
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0930 UTC Sat Aug 4 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Hector centered near 14.3N 131.7W at 04/0900 UTC or
1380 nm E of Hilo Hawaii moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105
kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is observed within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed elsewhere from 11N to 15N between
127W and 132W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for additional details.
A surface low is drifting west-northwest along the monsoon
trough near 12N101W and is accompanied by scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 12N to 15N between 99W and 106W,
and from 07N to 11N between 102W and 106W. This low is forecast
to move to an estimated position near 12N102W on Sat evening and
then near 13N104W on Sun evening. The low is then expected to
continue NW across the far offshore waters between 104W and 117W
through the middle of next week. Due to the high probability for
this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and
model guidance being in reasonable agreement on the development
of gale force winds associated with this system in the next 48
hours, a gale warning has been issued effective beginning at 0600
UTC Mon. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP and the East Pacific
High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS header FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for
additional information.
A surface low is along the monsoon trough near 12N115W
accompanied by scattered moderate isolated strong convection
from 10N to 17N between 113W and 118W. This low has a medium
chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours as it moves west to west-northwestward over the open
eastern Pacific waters. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical
Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for
additional information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed with an axis extending from 18N101W
through a 1009 mb low near 12N101W to 08N101W, and is estimated
to be moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Please see the special features
section for more details.
A tropical wave is analyzed with an axis extending from 18N115W
through a 1008 mb low near 12N115W to 09N115W, and is estimated
to be progressing W at 10 to 15 kt. Please see the special
features section for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N90W through the
special features low near 12N101W, then through another special
features low near 12N115W to 14N124W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves and special features,
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 08N
to 16N between 88W and 99W, and from 09N to 15N between 106W and
113W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See Special Features Section above.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is
occurring tonight across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the
gulf waters. These winds are expected to return each night
the next several nights beginning again Sun night, with a
temporary break Sat night due to the developing low to the SW of
the area.
Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are
expected along 30N while light to gentle southerly flow is
expected elsewhere through early Tue when guidance suggests
moderate southerly flow will develop across the entire gulf
waters. Long period southerly swell is forecast across the
southern gulf waters beginning Tue night in association with a
tropical low passing SW of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.
Otherwise, a broad N-NW to S-SE orientated trough will meander E
to W across the Baja California Peninsula and the Gulf of
California through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate
NW breezes, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are forecast outside of the
Tehuantepec region until the developing tropical low SW of
Tehuantepec moves NW, bringing with it increasing winds and
seas.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
See Special Features Section above.
Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh nocturnal easterly flow is
expected through Sun with guidance suggesting strong winds
on Sun night and again on Wed night.
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 09N and 11N.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the
monsoon trough through early next week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft
seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See Special Features Section above.
A ridge will meander from 33N133W to 20N110W through the
upcoming weekend, supporting moderate N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft
seas. The ridge will retract NW early next week as potential
tropical cyclones discussed in the special features section move
across the region, bringing with them increasing winds and
building seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are
forecast elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, or roughly to the S
of 10N for the next several days.
$$
Latto
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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