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KF5JRV > WX 06.08.18 13:08l 141 Lines 6029 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 18117_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Aug 6
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VE3CLG<KM8V<N9PMO<AB0AF<
KF5JRV
Sent: 180806/1122Z 18117@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
813
AXPZ20 KNHC 060920
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0920 UTC Mon Aug 6 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Hector centered near 14.9N 140.6W at 06/0900 UTC
moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm
of the center. Scattered moderate convection is seen elsewhere
from 08N to 16N W of 136W. Since Hector has moved W of 140W,
additional information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, under
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web
at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.
Tropical Storm Ileana centered near 15.2N 100.3W at 06/0900 UTC
or 320 nm SE of Manzanillo Mexico moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is observed within 90 nm of the center. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from
11N to 17N between 97W and 102W. Refer to the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC
for additional details.
Tropical Storm John centered near 15.1N 107.3W at 06/0900 UTC or
490 nm SSE of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving WNW at
7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from
11N to 19N between 103W and 111W. Refer to the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
for additional details.
A broad area of low pressure is over the eastern Pacific with a 1007
mb center analyzed near 14N122W accompanied by numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection from 11N to 16N between 117W and
122W. This system will continue to move WNW with strong to near
gale force winds developing near the system center. This system
has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours. Refer to the East Pacific Tropical Weather
Outlook under WMO/AWIPS header ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for
additional information.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 10N95W, then
resumes at the special feature low near 14N120W to 14N133W.
Aside from convection associated with the special feature low,
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm of the
monsoon trough axis between 122W and 127W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 13N between 128W and 131W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See Special Features Paragraph above for details on Tropical
Storm Ileana and Tropical Storm John that are expected to affect
the offshore waters between 100W and 117W during the next
several days.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is
expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf
waters through Wed night.
Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate southerly winds are
expected along 30N through Tue when moderate to fresh southerly
winds are expected to develop and last through early Wed. Light
to gentle southerly flow is expected elsewhere through Tue.
Large southerly swell up to 12 ft is forecast across the
southern gulf waters beginning late Tue in association with
Tropical Storm John and Tropical Storm Ileana passing SW of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. This swell may
cover the entire entrance to the Gulf of California. In addition,
southerly flow will increase to 20 to 30 kt S of 25N Wed and Wed
night as the outer fringes of these systems pass by.
Outside of the tropical cyclones, a weak pressure pattern will be
in place due to the disruption of the typical ridging NW of the
region. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds over
the Pacific offshore waters outside of the circulations of the
tropical cyclones.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly
flow is expected through the middle of this week.
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 11N.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the
monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft
seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding
Hurricane Hector, a tropical low pressure system, and Tropical
Storm John that may affect the waters N of 10N the next several
days. Large swell greater than 8 ft will likely propagate
several hundred miles away from the tropical low and John through
this week. The effect from Hector over the discussion waters will
diminish completely over the next 36 hours as the system moves
farther west of 140W.
Ridging from 31N133W to 20N115W will retract NW early this week
as the tropical cyclones mentioned previously affect the waters N
of the monsoon trough. Strong northwest winds west of the
western United States will produce northerly swell of 8 ft that
will cross the discussion waters N of 25N between 119W and 125W
Tue through Wed.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast S of the
monsoon trough, or roughly to the S of 10N for the next several
days.
$$
Latto
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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