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KF5JRV > WX 07.08.18 13:08l 128 Lines 5374 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 18178_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific - Aug 7
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VE3CLG<KM8V<N9PMO<AB0AF<
KF5JRV
Sent: 180807/1124Z 18178@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.16
548
AXPZ20 KNHC 070915
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0915 UTC Tue Aug 7 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane John centered near 17.3N 109.1W at 07/0900 UTC or 340
nm S of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving NW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to 20N
between 104W and 115W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for additional
details.
Tropical Storm Ileana centered near 19.4N 106.9W at 07/0900 UTC
or 270 nm SE of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving WNW
at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 19N to 23N between 104W
and 108W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for additional details.
Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Kristy centered near 14.3N 125.1W
at 07/0900 UTC or 1000 nm WSW of The Southern Tip Of Baja
California moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to
55 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 12N
to 16N between 123W and 128W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough stretches from 09N77W to 09N88W to 07N95W to
12N102W. The ITCZ extends from 14N127W to 12N132W to 14N138W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to
15N E of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of a
line from 15N139W to 08N130W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See the Special Features Paragraph above for details on
Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Ileana which are expected to
continue affecting the offshore waters between Puerto Angel and
Baja California Sur during the next several days.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal northerly drainage flow is
expected across, and about 120 nm downstream, of the gulf waters
through Wed night.
Gulf of California: Fresh S winds will pulse to strong speeds
early this morning and again tonight N of 29N. Light to moderate
southerly flow is expected elsewhere through today. Large
southerly swell will cause seas for the Gulf waters S of 26N to
build to between 8 and 14 ft Wed and Wed night as Hurricane John
passes SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
In addition, southerly flow will increase to 20 to 25 kt S of 25N
Wed and Wed night as the eastern flank of John reaches the area.
Outside of the tropical cyclones, a weak pressure pattern will be
in place due to the disruption of the typical ridging NW of the
region. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds over
the Pacific offshore waters outside of the circulations of the
tropical cyclones.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly
flow is expected through the end of this week.
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 11N.
Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are forecast S of the
monsoon trough through early this week accompanied by 4 to 6 ft
seas, except 6 to 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding
Hurricane John, Tropical Storm Ileana, and Tropical Storm Kristy
which will affect the waters N of 10N during the next several
days. Large swell greater than 8 ft will likely propagate at
least several hundred miles away from Hurricane John through the
end of this week, as it has becomes a very large system. Swell to
10 ft from Hurricane Hector over the discussion waters will
diminish during the next 12 hours as the system moves farther
west of 140W. Swell from Tropical Storm Kristy will affect the
waters primarily N of 10N and W of 120W through the remainder of
the week.
Ridging from 30N133W to 20N115W will retract NW during the next
few days as the 3 systems mentioned previously affect the waters
N of the monsoon trough. John will have the most effect on the
ridge due to its size. Strong NW winds west of the western United
States will produce northerly swell that will cause seas to
build to 8 ft or above for the discussion waters N of 25N between
119W and 125W this afternoon through Wed morning, before the
swell merges with that from Hurricane John.
Cross equatorial mixed SE and SW swell of 8 ft that extends as
far N as 7N between 112W and 120W will subside below 8 ft by this
evening.
$$
Latto
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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