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KF5JRV > WX 08.08.18 12:48l 108 Lines 4230 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 18230_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific - Aug 8
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<SV1CMG<VE3CLG<KM8V<KQ0I<NS2B<KF5JRV
Sent: 180808/1128Z 18230@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.16
790
AXPZ20 KNHC 080403
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Aug 8 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane John centered near 19.2N 111.1W at 0300 UTC or 300 nm
S of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving NW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is within 150 nm of the center, except to 60
nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm either side of a
line from 23N110W to 14N106W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Storm Kristy centered near 14.2N 127.8W at 0300 UTC,
moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 30 nm of the center, and
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere
within 75 nm N and 150 nm S of the center. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC
for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough stretches from 09N78W to 09N110W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the
trough axis west of 105W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See the Special Features Paragraph above for details on
Hurricane John. John is expected to affect the offshore waters
between Manzanillo and Baja California Sur with winds and seas
tonight through Friday night.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh nocturnal northerly
drainage flow is expected in and up to 120 nm downstream of the
gulf through Fri night.
Gulf of California: Large southerly swell from John will cause
seas S of 25N to build to 8-12 ft with S winds will increase to
20-25 kt through Wed night as the hurricane move NW, passing SW
of Cabo San Lucas.
Outside of the tropical cyclones, a weak pressure pattern will
be in place through the end of the week due to weak ridging NW
of the region. A large extratropical low pressure system west of
California and Oregon will maintain a weakened pressure gradient
and support gentle to moderate winds over forecast waters. The
extratropical low is expected to weaken this weekend, allowing
the ridge to rebuild.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E nocturnal flow is expected
through the end of this week.
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 07N and 11N.
Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the
trough through the end of this week. 4-6 ft seas will generally
prevail, except for 6- 7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the Special Features Paragraph above for details regarding
Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Kristy which will affect the
waters N of 10N during the next several days. Large swell
greater than 8 ft will propagate well away from from Hurricane
John through the end of this week as a very large system. The
areas of 8 ft seas generated by swell from Hurricane John and
Tropical Storm Kristy will merge on Thu, with a large area of 8
ft seas likely enveloping most of the waters N of 15N and W of
110W through the remainder of this week.
Ridging N of the area will weaken during the next few days as
John and Kristy dominate the synoptic environment. John will
have the most effect on the ridge due to its large size. Strong
NW winds west of California will produce N swell that will cause
seas to build to 7-8 ft N of 30N between 120W and 124W tonight.
$$
Mundell
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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