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KF5JRV > WX 09.08.18 12:49l 112 Lines 4279 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 18293_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Aug 9
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<W9ABA<N9LYA<KF5JRV
Sent: 180809/1127Z 18293@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQK6.0.16
204
AXPZ20 KNHC 090924
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Aug 9 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm John centered near 23.7N 115.9W at 0300 UTC or
335 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California moving NW at 14
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the
center. John will move NW to near 25.9N 119.9W early Friday,
then weaken to a remnant low on Sat as it moves farther away
from the Baja peninsula. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Storm Kristy centered near 15.8N 130.1W at 0900 UTC,
moving NNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the
center, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
elsewhere within 180 nm NE of the center. Kristy will move
northward along 130W during the next 24 hours with little change
in intensity. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave along 90W north of 06N is moving westward at 10-
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
axis from 06N to 08N.
A tropical wave along 104W/105W from 06N to 16N is moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm of the axis from 08N to 13N.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N94W to 11N100W
to 09N107W to 13N123W, then resumes from 13N133W to 09N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 45 nm
south of the axis west of 133W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical
Storm John.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: A brief period of fresh to strong northerly
winds is expected this morning, with seas building to 7 ft.
Moderate to fresh northerly nocturnal drainage flow is expected
to 120 nm downstream of the gulf this evening through Fri night.
Gulf of California: Large southerly swell from John with seas to
8 ft S of 24N and southerly winds to 20 kt will diminish today
as the tropical storms moves NW, passing W of Baja California.
John will move NW, parallel to the coast of Baja California
today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday. A
weak ridge will build between John and Baja California Peninsula
by Fri as the cyclone moves away from the offshore waters.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E nocturnal flow is expected
through the end of this week.
Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough, which will meander between 07N and 11N.
Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S of the
trough through the end of this week. 4-6 ft seas will generally
prevail, except for 6-7 ft seas near the Galapagos Islands.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the Special Features section above for details regarding
Tropical Storms John and Kristy, which will affect the waters N
of 10N W of 110W during the next several days. Large swell will
propagate well away from John through Friday. The areas of 8 ft
seas generated by swell from John and Kristy will merge later
today, with a large area of 8 ft seas likely enveloping most of
the waters N of 15N and W of 110W the remainder of this week. A
ridge will dominate the NW portion of the area this weekend. The
pressure gradient between John and high pressure to the NW will
bring increasing winds across the NW part of the forecast area.
$$
Mundell
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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