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KF5JRV > WX 10.08.18 14:28l 132 Lines 5759 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 18351_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific - Aug 10
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<VK2DOT<VK4TUB<LU4ECL<PI8CDR<VE3TOK<VA3TOK<VE3UIL<AB0AF<
KF5JRV
Sent: 180810/1115Z 18351@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
441
AXPZ20 KNHC 100946
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 10 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm John is centered near 25.9N 119.9W at 0900 UTC or
about 575 nm WNW of the southern tip of Baja California moving
NW or 310 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1001 mb. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered
moderate convection within 90 nm NW and 60 nm SE of the center.
Although the overall appearance of John had improved modestly
tonight, convection has begun to diminish in the past few hours,
and the tropical storm has already begun to weaken as it moves
over cooler sea surface temperatures. This weakening trend will
continue through Friday night as John is expected to reach near
27.4N 122.8W as a tropical depression then weaken to a post-
tropical remnant low near 28.6N 124.4W by Sat night as it moves
farther away from the Baja peninsula. Swells from John will
continue to affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico
through Friday and the Baja California peninsula through Sat.
Southerly swell has reached the coastal waters of southern
California overnight and will produce large surf and strong rip
current conditions there through Sat. Please consult products
from your local weather office. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details.
Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 18.2N 129.8W MB at 0900
UTC, moving NNE or 15 degrees at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained winds remain at 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone
continues to maintain it current intensity, but an eye feature
seen developing in microwave imagery earlier tonight has yet to
develop in the middle to upper portions of Kristy. It is
possible that the window of opportunity to strengthen to a
hurricane today has passed. Deep convection, in the form
scattered moderate to strong intensity, is observed within 90 nm
SW and 60 nm NE of the center, while scattered moderate to
strong convection is seen elsewhere from 120 to 240 nm across
the S semicircle. Kristy is expected to maintain is current
intensity today as it moves slowly northward along 130W.
Afterwards Kristy is expected to begin to gradually weaken as it
moves over cooler waters and become nearly stationary on Sunday.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis has been relocated to along 95W north of
05N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is located from 06N to 12N between 92W and 100W.
A tropical wave axis is along 110W-111W from 04N to 18N, moving
westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 07N to 14N between 105W and 115W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N75W TO 05N79W TO 09N85W
TO 07N98W TO low pres near 11.5N111W TO 15N119W, where it
terminates. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 06.5N to 12.5N east of 89W. Scattered strong convection
continues along the coast 60 nm offshore of the Pacific coast of
Mexico between 105W and 109W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See the Special Features section above for details on Tropical
Storm John.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly flow northerly
nocturnal drainage flow is expected to continue downstream of
the gulf this morning, reaching to near 13N, with seas reaching
a peak of about 7 ft.
John is moving west-northwest away from the Baja California
Peninsula. Swells propagating away from John are reaching
the Baja California coastline and will continue through Fri. A
weak ridge will build between John and Baja California Peninsula
by Fri as the cyclone moves away from the offshore waters.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh northeast to east nocturnal winds will
flow through the gulf tonight into early on Sun.
Gentle to occasionally moderate east winds are forecast
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with axis roughly along
09N/10N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected S
of the trough through the end of this week. Seas in the range of
4-6 ft will generally prevail, except for 6-7 ft seas near the
Galapagos Islands. These seas will increase over the weekend to
7-9 ft due to a large area of cross-equatorial SW swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the Special Features section above for details regarding
Tropical Storms John and Kristy, which will affect the waters N
of 13N W of 110W during the next several days. Large swell will
propagate well away from John through Friday. The areas of 8 ft
seas generated by swell from John and Kristy will merge later
today, with a large area of 8 ft seas likely enveloping most of
the waters N of 15N and W of 110W through Fri. A ridge will
dominate the NW portion of the area this weekend. The pressure
gradient between John and high pressure to the NW will bring
increasing winds across the NW part of the forecast area Fri and
through the weekend.
$$
Stripling
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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