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KF5JRV > WX 11.08.18 13:49l 119 Lines 4931 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 18410_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific - Aug 11
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<VE3UIL<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 180811/1126Z 18410@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
923
AXPZ20 KNHC 110940
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 11 2018
Updated Tropical Waves section
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Kristy is centered near 21.0N 130.4W at 0900 UTC,
moving NNW or 345 degrees at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is now 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds have diminished
to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Latest satellite imagery suggests
a weakening trend has begun, with the middle level center
appearing to move NNW out ahead of the low level center. Strong
convection has diminished, and scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is now observed within 90 nm of the center
except 45 nm across the SW quadrant. Kristy is forecast to
gradually weaken tonight through this weekend as it veers
northwestward and begins to move over colder sea surface
temperatures, and is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
by 24 hours. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details.
The post-Tropical storm remnant low of John is centered near
27.5N123W, moving NW near 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Winds have diminished to 20-25 kt within
120 nm of the center across the NE semicircle, with seas of 8-11
ft, and will gradually diminish further over the next 24-36
hours as the low moves slowly WNW and weakens.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 100W-101W from 04N to 16N, moving
westward at 12-15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous strong
convection is from 06.5N to 15N between 97W and 107W.
A tropical wave is along 115W from 04N to 17N, with a 1012 mb
low pressure center near 11.5N114W, moving westward 10-15 kt.
Satellite imagery shows widely scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 07.5N to 16N between 110W and 119W. More
stable atmospheric conditions are expected ahead of the wave as
it moves westward of 120W in the next few days, and the low
center will likely dissipate within 36-48 hours.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N74W TO 08.5N93.5W TO LOW
PRES NEAR 11.5N114W, where it terminates. The ITCZ extends from
14.5N132W to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 120 nm S of the trough between 80W
and 95W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 132W and 140W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Post-Tropical Storm John, now a low center, is moving west-
northwest away from the Baja California Peninsula. Earlier SW
swell generated from John will continue to move through the
offshore waters and reach the Baja California coastline through
Sat. Southerly swell has already peaked across the coastal
waters of southern California on Friday but will continue to
produce moderate to large surf and strong rip current conditions
there through Sat. Please consult products from your local NWS
office. Weak high pressure is building over the waters west of
the Baja California Peninsula, and will last through at least
the weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh northeast to east winds will flow across
the gulf and well downstream into early Sun, becoming strong
each night through morning.
Gentle to occasionally moderate east winds are forecast
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with axis roughly meandering
along 09N-10N. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are
expected S of the trough through the end of this week. Seas in
the range of 4-6 ft will generally prevail, except for 6-7 ft
seas near the Galapagos Islands. These seas will increase over
the weekend to 7-9 ft due to a large area of long period cross-
equatorial SW swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...See the Special Features section above
for details Tropical Storm Kristy, where generated swell will
continue to affect the waters N of 17N west of 125W through
early next week. Seas generated by former Tropical Storm John
and Kristy have combined to create an area of 8-9 ft seas to the
N of 15N and W of 119W. These seas will last through Sat
afternoon, then shrink in coverage Sat night through Sun. A
ridge will dominate the NW portion of the area this weekend. The
pressure gradient between the remnant low of John and high
pressure to the NW will increase NE winds across much of the NW
part of the forecast area through the weekend.
$$
Stripling
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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