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KF5JRV > WX 18.08.18 12:50l 97 Lines 3544 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 18920_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacfic WX - Aug 18
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<SV1CMG<PI8BDG<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 180818/1115Z 18920@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
551
AXPZ20 KNHC 180904
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
609 UTC Sat Aug 18 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Hurricane Lane centered near 12.1N 137.0W at 0900 UTC, moving W
at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted in the NE
semicircle within 90 nm and in the SW semicircle within 60 nm.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen
elsewhere from 08N to 14N W of 133W. A motion between W and WNW
is expected during the entire forecast period, and Lane is
forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin later today.
Lane has strengthened into a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is
possible today or Sunday, but gradual weakening is forecast
thereafter. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N78W to 18N78W,
moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 09N E of 80W.
A tropical wave has an axis extending from 05N106W to 17N106W,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is found from 05N to 14N between 101W and 106W.
A tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N120W to 16N118W,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is present from 06N to 16N between 110W and 123W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 09N89W to 07N96W to
10N105W to 10N122W. The ITCZ continues from 10N 122W to 12N131W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed
from 11N to 16N between 92W and 101W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging extending SE from 32N133W to near the
Revillagigedo Islands will support gentle to moderate NW winds
through early next week.
Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain a light
wind regime over the Gulf of California through early next week.
Nocturnal N to NE drainage flow between 15 and 20 kt will affect
the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, then winds will become
light and variable. Strong N to NE gap winds are anticipated from
Tue night through Thu morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The monsoon trough will hover near 09N during the next few days.
Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be light
to moderate. The only exception is over the Gulf of Papagayo,
where winds will pulse to between moderate and fresh each night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Lane.
Otherwise, ridging will extend from near 32N133W across the
waters N of the intertropical convergence zone to near the
Revillagigedo Islands during the next several days. Gentle to
moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell will prevail S of
the ridge and N of the ITCZ.
$$
CAM
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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