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KF5JRV > WX 25.08.18 12:42l 59 Lines 2328 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 19403_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Central Pacfic WX - Aug 24
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<XE1FH<VE3UIL<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 180825/1115Z 19403@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
WTPA42 PHFO 250910
TCDCP2
Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
The thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Lane are now far
removed from the exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC). Most
of this deep convection is in outer rain bands across the eastern
and central Hawaiian Islands. Needless to say, severe flooding is
occurring due to this, especially over the Big Island where over 40
inches of rain have fallen along parts of the windward sections.
Lane continues to weaken, so taking a blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates, we have lowered the initial intensity to 55
knots.
The latest motion for this advisory is 335/3 knots. Lane is expected
to continue weakening due to vertical wind shear of 25 to 30 knots.
As a result, the exposed LLCC will likely track slowly
north-northwestward tonight, followed by a turn toward the west on
Saturday. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the
right through 36 hours, when it is expected to weaken to a remnant
low. Assuming this low survives, it may eventually become an
extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian
Islands by day 5.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
center. Rain bands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane
are still bringing persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the
state. In addition, damaging winds and isolated tornados are also
possible in these rain bands. Winds will be accelerated over higher
terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope. Winds will
also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 19.4N 158.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 19.8N 159.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 19.9N 160.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 161.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 163.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 20.7N 166.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 23.0N 168.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPTRATROP
120H 30/0600Z 27.5N 170.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Houston
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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