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KF5JRV > WX 30.08.18 13:43l 64 Lines 2714 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 19735_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS CPHC Central Pacific WX - Aug 30
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N9PMO<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 180830/1115Z 19735@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
WTPA43 PHFO 300858
TCDCP3
Hurricane Miriam Discussion Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152018
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 29 2018
The satellite presentation of Miriam has improved slightly since
the previous advisory, with deep convection remaining over the
difficult to locate low level circulation center. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC ranged
from 4.0 (65 knots) to 4.5 (77 knots) while the Advanced Dvorak
Technique from UW-CIMSS came in at 3.5 (55 knots). Since the
satellite presentation has improved slightly since the previous
advisory, the initial intensity will be increased to 70 knots with
this advisory, which correlates well with a blend of the intensity
estimates. The initial motion is set at 300/07 knots.
Miriam is being steered by a large subtropical ridge to the
northeast of the system and a deep mid-upper level trough to the
north-northwest. Miriam is expected to track off to the northwest
tonight then make a turn toward the north Thursday through Friday
night. The increasing west-southwesterly shear should result in a
decoupling of the system by early Saturday, and this is expected to
result in a turn toward the northwest and eventually west Saturday
through Monday as Miriam becomes influenced primarily by the low
level trade wind flow. The official forecast for this advisory is
nearly identical to the previous advisory and closely follows the
consensus guidance.
The environment will be conducive for additional intensification of
Miriam over the next 24 hours, with shear values remaining low, sea
surface temperatures holding around 28C, while the system moves
over a region of higher Ocean Heat Content. As a result the
official forecast calls for slight intensification over the next 24
hours, followed by slow and steady weakening between 24 and 36
hours as Miriam begins to feel the effects of strengthening west-
southwesterly shear. Beyond 36 hours the intensity forecast will
show fairly rapid weakening as shear values increase into the 30 to
45 knot range, while the system moves over marginal sea surface
temperatures of 26C or below.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 14.7N 141.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 15.4N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 16.8N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 18.4N 141.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 19.9N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 23.0N 144.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 25.5N 147.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0600Z 27.0N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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