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KF5JRV > WX 04.09.18 14:04l 50 Lines 1853 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 20594_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Sept 04
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<SV1CMG<VE3CLG<KM8V<N9PMO<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 180904/1123Z 20594@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
500
WTPZ42 KNHC 040845
TCDEP2
Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018
A recent SSMIS overpass indicated a banding eye inner core
structure with improved deep convective outer bands over the
southern semicircle. A 0432 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass was
used to adjust the wind radii for this advisory package. A blend
of the subjective satellite intensity estimates support a slight
initial intensity increase to 70 kt.
Olivia has about 24-36 hours or so remaining over warm SSTs with
marginally favorable upper wind conditions. Therefore strengthening
is forecast for the next day or so, similar to the HCCA and IVCN
consensus models. After that time, The cyclone is expected to
traverse slightly cooler oceanic surface temperatures, and gradual
weakening is indicated through day 5. The NHC forecast is based on
the above consensus models and is similar to the previous advisory.
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/10 kt. A
building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast
to induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with
increasing forward speed during the next several days. The model
guidance is tightly packed on this solution, and the latest NHC
track forecast is basically just an update of the previous
prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 16.9N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 17.2N 120.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 17.7N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 18.4N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 20.1N 131.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 21.9N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 23.0N 142.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Roberts
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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