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KF5JRV > WX 07.09.18 03:25l 56 Lines 2197 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 20795_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Sept 06
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<EA2RCF<PI8BDG<AB0AF<N9PMO<N9LCF<KF5JRV
Sent: 180906/1115Z 20795@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
823
WTPZ42 KNHC 060844
TCDEP2
Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018
The cloud tops surrounding Olivia's 25 n mi diameter eye have cooled
somewhat over the past several hours, indicative of a little
strengthening. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, which
is a blend of lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective
SATCON and ADT estimates. Olivia will soon be moving over somewhat
cooler SSTs and into a drier mid-level air mass. This should lead
to gradual weakening over the next few days. The official intensity
forecast is very close to the simple and corrected intensity
consensus models, IVCN and HCCA. Olivia has a fairly large eye
with limited banding features, but the numerical guidance indicates
a low likelihood that the system could become an annular hurricane.
Nonetheless, if that transition were to occur, Olivia would likely
maintain a higher intensity for the next few days than indicated
here.
No significant changes have been made to the NHC track prediction
or forecast reasoning. Olivia continues moving west-northwestward
or 285/12 kt. A well-defined deep-layer ridge should remain in
place to the north of the hurricane for the next several days, and
this ridge is expected to build westward during the forecast
period. As a result, Olivia should gradually turn from its
west-northwestward heading to a westward course by the weekend.
The track guidance models remain in excellent agreement on this
scenario. The official forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus and the latest ECMWF prediction. This is essentially an
update of the previous NHC track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 18.1N 125.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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