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KF5JRV > WX 10.09.18 12:45l 57 Lines 2134 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 21021_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Sept 10
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<HP2BWJ<LU4ECL<XE1FH<W9ABA<N9LYA<KF5JRV
Sent: 180910/1115Z 21021@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
630
WTPZ43 KNHC 100845
TCDEP3
Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018
Paul's poorly defined surface circulation remains displaced well to
the east of an intermittent burst of deep convection. A 0448 UTC
ASCAT-A pass covering the western semicircle showed only 30 kt
winds. Based on the scatterometer pass, and a blend of the
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier
0228 UTC SATCON analysis of 37 kt, the initial intensity is lowered
to 35 kt.
The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly
shear impeding the eastern side of the cyclone. The Decay SHIPS
intensity model shows the shear diminishing within the next 24 hours
or so, however, Paul will be moving over cooler waters and into a
more stable thermodynamic environment. Therefore, weakening is
forecast in 36 hours, or less, and Paul is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low in 3 days. The intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN
consensus models.
The exposed surface circulation continues to move a bit erratically
this morning, but the 12 hour motion is an uncertain northwestward,
or 320/8 kt. Paul should continue to move within the mid-level
steering flow produced by a ridge to the north through day 3, then
a turn westward is indicated as the vertically shallower cyclone
moves within the low-level trades. The NHC track forecast is an
update of the last one, and agrees with the various consensus
guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 20.1N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 20.8N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 22.5N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 23.4N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z 23.6N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z 23.6N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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