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KF5JRV > WX 02.10.18 13:04l 116 Lines 4649 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 22356_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Oct 02
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<SV1CMG<PI8BDG<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 181002/1135Z 22356@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
255
WTPZ41 KNHC 020852
TCDEP1
Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018
Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Sergio continues to
strengthen. The center is located within a fairly symmetric CDO
with cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees C. Earlier microwave data
showed a well-defined eye and inner core, but a more recent AMSU
overpass suggests that there has been some slight erosion of the
eastern portion of the eye, possibly due to some intrusion of dry
mid-level air. Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 75 to 90 kt,
and the initial intensity has been increased to a possibility
conservative 75 kt for this advisory.
The intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Although
Sergio has developed an inner core and strengthened during the past
12 hour or so, the dynamical models suggest northeasterly shear
will increase over the hurricane today. This is expected to temper
the intensification somewhat over the next 12-24 hours, however,
most of the guidance shows at least gradual strengthening during
the next day or so. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a gradual
increase in wind speed over the next 36-48 hours, and is close to
the IVCN model consensus. After 72 h, cooler waters and the
entrainment of drier air is expected to cause gradual weakening.
Sergio is moving slightly south of due west or 265/12 kt. The
hurricane is currently located to the south of a mid-level ridge,
and Sergio should continue westward today. The global models show
the western portion of the ridge weakening over the next several
days, which should cause Sergio to turn west-northwestward, then
northwestward on Wednesday. By late in the week, another ridge
is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio and the hurricane
is forecast to turn back toward the west. The overall guidance
envelope has changed little this cycle, and the new NHC track is
similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 10.7N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
276
WTPZ45 KNHC 020851
TCDEP5
Tropical Depression Rosa Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018
Satellite imagery continues to show a lack of convection near
the center of Rosa this morning. The remaining convection is
located well northeast of the center, and is spreading inland over
northern Mexico and portions of the Desert Southwest. A couple of
partial ASCAT passes revealed an area of 25-30 kt winds over the
central Gulf of California, and this is the basis for reducing the
initial intensity to 30 kt. The data also suggest that the
circulation has become elongated and that a new center may be
forming near the northeastern coast of the Baja California
peninsula.
The initial motion estimate is 030/9 kt. Rosa is expected to move
northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a
mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific. These
steering features should bring the center of Rosa across the
northern Gulf of California and into northern Mexico this afternoon.
Southwesterly shear and land interaction should cause the cyclone to
continue to weaken today, and Rosa is expected to dissipate over
northern Mexico or southwestern Arizona by tonight.
Although Rosa is forecast to weaken, the system is still expected
to bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding to
portions of northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during
the next day or so.
Key Messages:
1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in those areas, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 29.3N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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