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KF5JRV > WX 24.10.18 11:45l 52 Lines 1795 Bytes #999 (0) @ NA
BID : 23601_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS NHC Eastern N Pacific WX - Oct 24
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<SV1CMG<PI8BDG<AB0AF<KF5JRV
Sent: 181024/1016Z 23601@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.16
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240833
TCDEP4
Tropical Depression Willa Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa is
located well inland over the eastern portion of the Mexican state
of Durango. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough will continue to drive the mid and upper-level circulations
to the northeast and farther inland, with the low-level circulation
shearing away and lagging back to the southwest due to the blocking
high terrain of west-central and northern Mexico. A 12-hour forecast
position has been provided for continuity purposes, which reflects
where the mid-level circulation center is expected to be since the
cyclone will likely have dissipated by then.
Although Willa has weakened to a tropical depression, wind speeds
atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up
to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory. Therefore, strong tropical-storm-force winds gusts will
still be possible this morning, especially in stronger thunderstorms
occurring to the east and south of the center.
Key Messages:
1. Storm surge will subside this morning along the coasts of
southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and
southwestern Mexico.
2. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 24.4N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
email: KF5JRV@ICLOUD.COM
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