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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.05.23 15:30l 149 Lines 5959 Bytes #4 (0) @ WW
BID : 9880_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-MAY23
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 230516/1330Z 9880@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAY 16 11:58:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE MAY 16 11:58:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAY 16 11:58:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE MAY 16 11:58:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MAY 16, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2023
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION THURSDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE WEST, AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE, AND ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY, REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY VICINITY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT --
TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A WESTERN ONTARIO SURFACE LOW -- WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, AND ALSO WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
WEST AS COOL CANADIAN AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD.
...PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES, SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND AREA...
WHILE TROPICAL AIR -- SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY A PRIOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION -- WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST REGION,
MORE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR WITHIN A SOUTHERN PLAINS WARM
SECTOR, SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH, AND EAST OF
A WEST TEXAS TROUGH. WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTING AMPLE
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP -- PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES.
WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED (30 TO 35 KT) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST
TEXAS, A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER, A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS
-- LOCALLY CAPABLE OF EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS.
DURING THE EVENING, A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO OKLAHOMA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE -- POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MCS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA VICINITY, WHERE CONTINUED/LOCAL RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..GOSS.. 05/16/2023
READ MORE
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SPC MAY 16, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2023
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY 6 (SUNDAY), AFTER WHICH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
SYNOPTIC-SCALE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE OVER THE U.S. --
INITIALLY SURROUNDING TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES RELATED TO A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE ENTIRELY CONFINED TO
CANADA, TURNING IT IN A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH DAY 7, THE
ECMWF BRINGS THIS FEATURE MUCH FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD -- ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION DAYS 7-8.
PRIOR TO THIS BREAKDOWN IN AGREEMENT HOWEVER, THERE IS MORE
SUBSTANTIAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DAY 4, AND THEN TO THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF COASTS DAY 5. WITH THIS FRONT SUPPRESSING HIGHER THETA-E
LOW-LEVEL AIR TO THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN U.S., A
SECOND/REINFORCING FRONT DAY 6 IS FORECAST TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES -- MAINTAINING THIS SOUTHWARD
SUPPRESSION OF WARM/MOIST AIR.
AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE, THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SUGGESTIVE OF
MINIMAL SEVERE-WEATHER RISK. THE GREATEST RISK APPARENT DURING THE
TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DAY 4
(FRIDAY), AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL, GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
MODERATE (AROUND 30 KT) MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXPECTED ATOP THE WARM
SECTOR, THREAT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT 15% AREAL INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME.
AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTHWARD -- TO THE GULF COAST VICINITY --
DAY 5 (SATURDAY), SOME RISK COULD EVOLVE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES AND GEORGIA. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING FRONTAL LOCATION/PROGRESS PRECLUDES ANY RISK AREA
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
BY DAY 6, WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR LIKELY SUPPRESSED TO THE GULF,
APPRECIABLE CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA
VICINITY, AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WHERE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL.
READ MORE
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