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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.08.23 11:32l 331 Lines 12803 Bytes #85 (0) @ WW
BID : 3962_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 20-JUL23
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 230720/1200Z 3962@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.23
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JUL 20 08:02:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JUL 20 08:02:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU JUL 20 08:02:01 UTC 2023
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU JUL 20 08:02:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC JUL 20, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2023
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY, AND THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WIND MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS VICINITY...
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW, WHILE A MODEST SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND STALL
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, AND EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO NORTHERN OK. EASTERLY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
BAND OF 60S F DEWPOINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO
EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE FLOW
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THEY SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH TIME, A
BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN CO OR WESTERN
KS AND SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT ALONG A STRONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER VICINITY.
INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING OVER CO INTO KS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. ONCE CLUSTERING AND UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS,
THE RISK FOR A SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND (WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN
75 MPH) WILL INCREASE FROM FAR EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS INTO NORTHWEST
OK. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND APPEARS TO BE FROM
AROUND 23Z THROUGH 06Z.
...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TOWARD NY/NJ...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST TODAY AND
BECOME ORIENTED FROM WESTERN NY/PA TO COASTAL NC BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SWATH OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER LOW FLOW
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ATOP A
SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS. BY MIDDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN IL/MO. MID 60S TO
LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS BENEATH A POCKET OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPE TO 3000
J/KG) FROM NEAR IN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND WESTERN OH. SOME EARLY
DAY CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY, PRECLUDING HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES. THOUGH EARLY DAY CONVECTION STILL MAY POSE AN
ISOLATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS.
AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 35
KT WILL FAVOR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. ELONGATED FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
AND LARGE INSTABILITY SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW
INSTANCES OF 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS A SMALL
AREA FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INTO NORTHEAST IN/NORTHWEST OH.
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD PA/NY, CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS POSING A RISK FOR SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS PA/NY OVERNIGHT, AND TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
...TN VALLEY VICINITY TOWARD GA/SC...
AN MCV/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO
MIGRATE THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE TN VICINITY TOWARD THE
SC COAST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CAMS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENTS THAT ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS, POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AMID 30-40 KT
MIDLEVEL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION.
..LEITMAN/WENDT.. 07/20/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 20, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2023
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...SOUTHEAST...DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES, SOUTHEAST, DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THIS REGION AS A LOBE OF ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IN WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR A FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST NEAR THE PA/NJ BORDER SOUTH INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
VICINITY AND RESULT IN MODERATE BUOYANCY. SOMEWHAT ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT BECOMING DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE REGION COINCIDENT WITH PEAK
HEATING, AND UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH DESTABILIZATION OWING TO
EARLY DAY CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
...HIGH PLAINS...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL
FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY FROM
EASTERN WY SOUTHWARD INTO THE RATON MESA VICINITY. IT APPEARS A
MINIMUM OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY EXIST SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE TO NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRENGTHENING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT
MAY ACT TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THE STRONGER CORES. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY WANE DURING THE EVENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
...DEEP SOUTH INTO EASTERN OK...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK/AR DURING
THE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING STORMS MOVING EAST FROM
SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK. AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK COULD LINGER INTO
THE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF AR BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS INDICATE STRONG
HEATING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE 2500+ J/KG. SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS MAY AID IN
STORM INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEFORE THESE STORMS DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING.
...SOUTHEAST AZ...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WOULD
FAVOR EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS. SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
..SMITH.. 07/20/2023
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 20, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2023
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DEEP SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST WHILE A BROAD, LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM OK
EAST THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. A RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST FROM TX EAST THROUGH THE
NORTH GULF COAST STATES.
...DEEP SOUTH...
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. A BELT OF MODERATE WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S
DEG F) AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL FAVOR STRONG
TO SEVERE GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING.
...NE...
APPRECIABLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD A
BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON FEATURING STEEP LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIMITED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
A WEAK WIND SHIFT/SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES OR IS MAINTAINED
FOR ANOTHER OUTLOOK CYCLE, LOW-SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE
INTRODUCED.
..SMITH.. 07/20/2023
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2023
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST TODAY. SOME
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING ALOFT, SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG.
LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE FUELS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE SPREAD.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED IN PARTS OF NEVADA INTO UTAH
AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO. AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE, STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. PWAT
VALUES WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY HIGH AND FUELS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
MARGINALLY DRY. LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
..WENDT.. 07/20/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2023
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE COLUMBIA
BASIN.
GIVEN WEAK SURFACE WINDS, LOW LARGE FIRE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS
AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHWEST THAT HAVE DRY
FUELS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
WITHIN THE TERRAIN OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND CASCADE GAPS. GIVEN THE
LIMITED DURATION AND EXTENT OF THESE CONDITIONS, NO HIGHLIGHTS WILL
BE ADDED AT THIS TIME.
..WENDT.. 07/20/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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