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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.08.23 11:32l 458 Lines 15765 Bytes #85 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-JUL23
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Sent: 230724/1200Z 4141@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.23
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542
WW 542 SEVERE TSTM IA MO NE SD 240710Z - 241400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN IOWA
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
EASTERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 210 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...GROWING COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PREDAWN HOURS, SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MITCHELL SD TO FALLS CITY
NE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
33030.
...EDWARDS
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0542 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 542
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ONL TO
5 ESE FSD.
..MOSIER..07/24/23
ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 542
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-085-129-133-137-145-149-155-165-193-240940-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONONA MONTGOMERY PAGE
PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY
WOODBURY
MOC005-240940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON
NEC003-021-023-025-027-037-039-043-051-053-055-067-097-107-109-
119-127-131-133-139-141-147-151-153-155-159-167-173-177-179-
240940-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
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SPC MD 1691
MD 1691 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
SD...EASTERN NE...FAR WESTERN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0414 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST SD...EASTERN NE...FAR WESTERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542...
VALID 240914Z - 241045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN NE,
WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT INTO FAR WESTERN IA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED AMID WARM-AIR
ADVECTION ABOUT 2 HOURS AGO CONTINUES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST SD THROUGH
EASTERN NE. HAIL-PRODUCING SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS REGION,
WITH A FEW STILL ONGOING. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE BUOYANCY, WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000-2500
J/KG, AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR, WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 60 KT. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AND ASSOCIATED WARM-AIR
ADVECTION, IS EXPECTED PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
COMBINATION OF ASCENT AND BUOYANCY/SHEAR WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING STORMS AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD, BRINGING THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK INTO FAR WESTERN IA. ALTHOUGH OVERALL STORM
INTENSITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EARLIER, DUE TO MORE STORM
COVERAGE AND RESULTANT STORM INTERACTIONS, LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
..MOSIER.. 07/24/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42319773 43009778 43299696 41839552 40469509 40129635
40979698 41789742 42319773
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SPC JUL 24, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2023
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...AND IN THE
NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST.
...MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY...
A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TODAY, AS NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F, WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY, SEVERAL POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST
TO BECOME MAXIMIZED NEAR THE MOIST AXIS FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY
EASTWARD INTO INDIANA AND KENTUCKY, WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CELLS
MAY INITIATE FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
FORECAST FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WITHIN THESE AREAS, SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS FROM KANSAS CITY TO
PADUCAH GENERALLY HAVE MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE, ALONG
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 7.5 C/KM, SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS.
...NORTHEAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S., WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S F. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY, A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE INSTABILITY
AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE
25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME MAXIMIZED. A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
..BROYLES/SQUITIERI.. 07/24/2023
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SPC JUL 24, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2023
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NM, WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FLATTENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CRESTS THE
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE EAST, A WEAK AND
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A RATHER NONDESCRIPT PATTERN WILL
FEATURE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO IA.
...DAKOTAS INTO NE...
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER EASTERN NE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH AN INITIALLY
STRONG CAP THROUGH MIDDAY. VERY STRONG HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
NEAR A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO ERODE
CINH AND FOCUS POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW 3000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER CENTRAL NE INTO
CENTRAL SD WITH WEAKER BUOYANCY FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MODEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTING ORGANIZED
STORMS, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
FROM ND/NORTHERN MN SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NE/NORTHEAST CO, WITH
STORM COVERAGE GREATEST OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN SD DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...CHESAPEAKE BAY...
THE FAVORABLE TIMING OF A BROAD/WEAK DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION
DURING PEAK HEATING WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AMIDST A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND AROUND 20 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING STORMS. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 45-60 MPH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH BY THE EARLY-MID EVENING.
..SMITH.. 07/24/2023
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SPC JUL 24, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2023
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NM WITH ITS
INFLUENCE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
IA WILL MEANDER EAST, WHILE A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA.
...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND A LLJ OVER THE IA/MO
VICINITY. A MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL FEATURE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEG F IN
SOUTHERN LOWER MI TO THE LOW-MID 70S OVER IL/IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MLCAPE 2500-4500 J/KG WITH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. A
CONTINUATION OF THE EARLY DAY ACTIVITY OR NEW DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO GROW UPSCALE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE
CELLULAR ACTIVITY BUT SEVERE GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE WIDESPREAD
RISK. SOME SEVERE RISK MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING AS THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
...WY...
STRONG HEATING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL YIELD VERY STEEP SURFACE TO 400-MB LAPSE RATES BY
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. APPRECIABLE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HEATING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHEAST UT, NORTHERN CO, AND TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF WY. DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONSIDER LOW-SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IF MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS MAINTAINED INTO THE
DAY-2 OUTLOOK TIMEFRAME.
..SMITH.. 07/24/2023
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SPC JUL 24, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2023
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SEASONABLY
ACTIVE SEVERE-WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING FINITE PERIODS IN THE
DAY 4-8 TIMEFRAME. A FLATTENED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS DEPICTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING THURSDAY-FRIDAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES MAINLY DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD.
DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY AND ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY, WILL DEFER
INCLUSION OF POTENTIAL SEVERE HIGHLIGHTS TO LATER OUTLOOKS.
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2023
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE HARNEY BASIN AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST TODAY. UPPER SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AND TO THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA, EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERLAPPING 15 PERCENT (OR LESS) RH AND 20+ MPH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE COLUMBIA AND HARNEY BASIN
AREAS, WHERE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS ARE IN PLACE. LOCALIZED
WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES
THAT MANAGE TO OCCUR WITHIN DRY FUEL BEDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AS AFTERNOON HEATING OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/24/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2023
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE, POISED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
TOMORROW/TUESDAY. THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY ENCOURAGE DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND PARTS OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT RH MAY DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT IN SEVERAL
LOCALES AS SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PEAK OVER 15 MPH FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS, NECESSITATING ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS. MEANWHILE,
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED NEAR THE STATIONARY UPPER
RIDGE, SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT CAN OCCUR WITHIN ONE
OF THE MORE ISOLATED DRY FUEL BEDS MAY PROMOTE LOCALIZED
WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/24/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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