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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.08.23 14:11l 466 Lines 19191 Bytes #87 (0) @ WW
BID : 4901_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 07-AUG23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<IR0AAB<PI8ZTM<PI8LAP<PA8F<VE3CGR<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON AUG 7 08:54:01 UTC 2023
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON AUG 7 08:54:01 UTC 2023.
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SPC MD 1875
MD 1875 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1875
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 070809Z - 071015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE THREAT MAY
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. THE
HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL, AND WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE
APPEARS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY FROM TULSA
SHOWS AN WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST BAND OF STRONG STORMS
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, WHERE THE
RAP IS ANALYZING MUCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION,
THE RAP HAS 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA GENERALLY IN
THE 7 TO 8 C/KM RANGE. THIS, COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 40
TO 50 KNOT RANGE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT, WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WHILE HAIL WILL
BE LIKELY NEAR THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS, WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LESSER
OF A THREAT, MAINLY DUE TO A TEMPERATURE INVERSION THAT IS KEEPING
MOST OF THE STORMS ELEVATED.
..BROYLES/GRAMS.. 08/07/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36839638 36539459 36339370 36119323 35729293 35119295
34779342 34709412 35189619 35209623 35699784 36359987
36680037 36910036 36990007 37019928 36999836 36939712
36839638
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SPC AUG 7, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S....
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW YORK...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR FORECASTER NAME
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA, MUCH OF
VIRGINIA, MARYLAND, AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. CONCENTRATED AREAS
OF WIND DAMAGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, INCLUDING PARTS OF ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND THE
CAROLINAS.
...FROM EASTERN KY/TN AND OH ACROSS
WV...VA...MD...DE...PA...NJ...SOUTHERN NY...
A COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS FORECAST TODAY,
WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY STARTING RELATIVELY EARLY POSSIBLY FROM
SOUTHERN OH ACROSS EASTERN KY AND TN. THE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS
FORECAST TO TRAVEL EASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER, WITH 500
MB SPEEDS OVER 50 KT AND 300 MB AROUND 80 KT. LITTLE HEATING WILL BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE THETA-E PLUME AND BENEATH COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND 18Z OVER THESE
AREAS. SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS, AND MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH AS
POTENTIAL RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, OR,
STABILIZE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXISTING STORMS AS OF 06Z MONDAY
NEAR THE OH RIVER WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE INTO LATE/MID MORNING
TODAY.
OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST WILL
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY
MOVING STRENGTHENING ACROSS WV AND MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO PA,
MD, AND VA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS, WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SRH. HOWEVER, TORNADO THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON STORM MODE, AND MANY MODELS DEPICT A SQUALL LINE. EVEN SO,
QLCS-TYPE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION, MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NY MAY ALSO YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO, AS SHEAR WILL
BE FAVORABLE BUT WITH LESSER INSTABILITY.
...EASTERN TN...AL...GA...CAROLINAS...
STRENGTHENING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND
STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL AS STORMS FORM FROM TN INTO NORTHERN MS AND AL AROUND
MIDDAY. AN EXPANSION OF STORMS PRODUCING OUTFLOW IS LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF GA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES RAPIDLY EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY REACHING THE SC
COAST BEFORE 00Z.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODERATE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL EXIST FROM CO/WY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A BELT OF 70+ KT WINDS AT 300 MB ACROSS
NORTHERN NM INTO OK/KS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON
FROM WESTERN NE ACROSS EASTERN CO AND INTO NORTHEAST NM. STORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY TO FORM OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND
MATURE INTO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
OTHER STORMS WILL FORM FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO NM, SIMILARLY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LENGTHY HODOGRAPHS FAVORING
HAIL.
..JEWELL/MOORE.. 08/07/2023
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SPC AUG 7, 2023 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO COASTAL GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING GUSTS AND
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/GEORGIA, POSING MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND RISK. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE STRONG GUSTS AND A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATING THROUGH
MODERATE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY AND OFFSHORE THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
...SOUTHEAST...
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD MAY RESIDE FROM
NORTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL/GA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN
OK/AR TUESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A VORTICITY MAXIMUM MIGRATING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THIS CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
VORTICITY MAX AND RELATED MCV SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM MS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL. GIVEN 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY, AN ORGANIZED
CLUSTER/MCS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AL/GA. STRONG INSTABILITY, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH PW
VALUES WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL AS CONVECTION SPREADS
EAST TOWARD THE GA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF NE INTO KS AND
NORTHEAST CO. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ATOP THE MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG. MEANWHILE,
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES GREATER THAN 40 KT WILL SUPPORT INITIAL
SUPERCELLS. ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS/FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR, COUPLED
WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUGGEST LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND CONVECTION MAY GROW UPSCALE
INTO A SEVERE MCS AS STORMS SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL NE/NORTHERN KS. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THE VICINITY
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE, AND A
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN THIS CORRIDOR FROM LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TIMING OF CONVECTION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT A BIT LATE, WITH LARGER-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, ISOLATED STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON IN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS.
...NORTHEAST...
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING IN A WARM ADVECTION
BAND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND
JUXTAPOSITION TO THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN 0-1 KM SRH GREATER
THAN 250 S2/M2. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND FAVORABLE SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO. ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH WARM ADVECTION STORMS, AND WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
..LEITMAN.. 08/07/2023
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SPC AUG 7, 2023 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
VICINITY.
...EASTERN KS/OK TO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY VICINITY...
A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN IMPULSE, FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA
MIGRATING THROUGH MODERATE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW FROM
THE OZARKS TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER EASTERN KS/OK MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHEAST TO WESTERN OH BY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY, EXTENDING FROM WESTERN OH TO NORTHWEST AR AND
THE RED RIVER VICINITY BY THURSDAY MORNING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL BE IN PLACE.
THIS WILL AID IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION AMID
SEASONALLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR, FOSTERING A BROAD AREA OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM EASTERN OK/KS INTO
MO/AR AS A CONTINUATION OF AN MCS FROM THE DAY 2/TUE PERIOD AND ON
THE NOSE OF A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT, SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. ONE ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD EAST FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER
OH/TN VALLEY VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING. A SECOND
ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS COULD THEN DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING OVER
THE OZARKS VICINITY AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING GUSTS. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING ACTIVITY AND OTHER MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME CORRIDOR WITHIN THE BROAD SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) NEEDING
HIGHER PROBABILITIES EVENTUALLY.
..LEITMAN.. 08/07/2023
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SPC AUG 7, 2023 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD AT
LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGHS MIGRATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT DEEP-LAYER FLOW APPEARS WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS ACROSS THESE AREAS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AROUND DAY 4/5-THU/FRI AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
AND STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE OUT OF PHASE. QUALITY OF THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ALSO IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN SEVERAL
PERIODS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL PRIOR TO THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. BEYOND DAY
5/6-FRI/SAT, SPREAD AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE INCREASES QUITE A BIT.
OVERALL, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO DELINEATE 15 PERCENT OR
GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND PARTS OF TEXAS. FIRE CONCERNS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS.
...FOUR CORNERS...
OVERNIGHT VWP OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS
REGION ARE SAMPLING MID-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THIS FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WHILE LEE TROUGHING TO THE EAST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
BE MODEST, SUSTAINED GRADIENT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER, WHICH SHOULD MANIFEST AS FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
30-35 MPH. OVERNIGHT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY, SO ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD 10-20% RH APPEARS LIKELY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE THREAT AREA
REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AZ INTO CENTRAL NM (THOUGH DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND/OR GUSTY OUTFLOW MAY POSE A SECONDARY FIRE
CONCERN).
...TEXAS...
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN BENIGN (LESS THAN 15 MPH) IN RECENT DAYS,
THE COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES, 20-30% RH AND VERY
DRY FUELS HAS RESULTED IN AGGRESSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR PER REGIONAL
REPORTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
TO SOUTHWEST TX WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT/ABOVE 105 F
BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. FURTHERMORE, THE DEEPENING OF A
WEAK LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NM/WEST TX WILL BOLSTER GRADIENT
WINDS TO NEAR 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TX, BUT
RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30% ARE LIKELY AND WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN
RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY IN SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.
...NEVADA...
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT HAS ESTABLISHED A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
REGIME OVER NORTHWEST NV THAT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY. DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL SUPPORT
RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
15-20 MPH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND CURING
FUELS WITH ERCS ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE SHOULD SUPPORT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
..MOORE.. 08/07/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2023
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SHORT TO MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE (NOTED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IN EARLY-MORNING
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY) OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY.
...FOUR CORNERS...
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS A LARGE
SWATH OF THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AZ TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN UT UNDER
A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
FAVOR RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS UT,
WESTERN CO, AND NORTHERN AZ WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE
QUALITY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO CENTRAL AZ/NM. AS WITH MONDAY,
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT OF THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO 1) AN INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN AZ
AND 2) THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS -
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NM WHERE 1-3 HOURS OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. REGARDLESS, SEVERAL
HOURS OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN UT.
...TEXAS...
SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH/CYCLONE DEEPENS. WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL
SPREAD IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER WESTERN TX, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A REASONABLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH
(GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH) BY PEAK HEATING. WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 105
F, RH MINIMUMS NEAR 20-30%, AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALREADY IN
PLACE, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLE ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST TX.
..MOORE.. 08/07/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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