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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.09.23 09:37l 379 Lines 10994 Bytes #116 (0) @ WW
BID : 6451_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-SEP23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 230905/0731Z 6451@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 668
WW 668 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 050235Z - 050800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 668
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 935 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A LONG-LIVED, FAST-MOVING COMPACT BOW ECHO WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS OVER A PORTION OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY WANE OVERNIGHT, BUT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
FARGO ND TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARROAD MN. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 667...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW
CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
23045.
...GRAMS
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667
WW 667 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 042225Z - 050400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 525 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 90
MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A SMALL CLUSTER OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A HISTORY
OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INTENSIFY AND LIKELY PRODUCE A CONFINED
SWATH OF SEVERE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE
EVENING.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BISMARCK ND TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MOBRIDGE SD. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 666...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
24040.
...GRAMS
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 668 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0668 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 668
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
..SMITH..09/05/23
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 668
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC007-027-029-069-077-087-089-107-113-119-125-135-050440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELTRAMI CLAY CLEARWATER
KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN
MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU
NDC003-005-017-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-091-097-099-050440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BENSON CASS
EDDY GRAND FORKS GRIGGS
NELSON PEMBINA RAMSEY
RANSOM STEELE TRAILL
WALSH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0667 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE PHP
TO 25 N MBG TO 30 SSE BIS TO 30 S N60.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2802
..WENDT..09/05/23
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 667
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC015-021-029-031-043-045-047-051-093-103-050340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS
FOSTER KIDDER LAMOURE
LOGAN MCINTOSH STUTSMAN
WELLS
SDC021-041-045-089-107-129-050340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL DEWEY EDMUNDS
MCPHERSON POTTER WALWORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0666 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 666
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CDR
TO 10 SSE RAP TO 40 N RAP TO 50 SSE 2WX TO 50 SW 2WX TO 25 ESE
4BQ TO 40 SE MLS.
..LYONS..09/05/23
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...CYS...UNR...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-050140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER
SDC055-063-093-102-103-105-137-050140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HAAKON HARDING MEADE
OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS
ZIEBACH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC MD 2082
MD 2082 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ND...NORTHWEST MN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CDT MON SEP 04 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND...NORTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667...
VALID 050217Z - 050415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A BOW ECHO WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #667.
A NEW DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY 10PM
CDT (03 UTC). PEAK GUSTS 65-80 MPH ARE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION...A COMPACT BUT INTENSE BOW ECHO CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTHWEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SURFACE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE BOW ECHO ARE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A RAWS SITE IN SIOUX
CO., ND SAMPLED A PEAK GUST OF 88 MPH AROUND 0050 UTC WITH THE BOW
ECHO.
KBIS (BISMARCK) 88D VAD SHOWS A STRONG REAR INFLOW JET WITH THE BOW
ECHO WITH 60-KT FLOW LESS THAN 1KM AGL. DESPITE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES (7.1 DEG C/KM PER THE BISMARCK 00 UTC RAOB), STRENGTHENING QG
FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO SOUTHEAST ND, THE DYNAMIC CHARACTER OF
THE BOW ECHO WILL COMBINE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUATION OF A
RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE PEAK GUST
MAGNITUDE WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN IN SOUTHERN ND BUT 65-80 MPH
ARE FORECAST WITH THE MORE INTENSE DOWNBURSTS.
..SMITH.. 09/05/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 47450076 48989885 49469510 49059474 48619503 46109882
46129917 46269956 47450076
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 5, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT MON SEP 04 2023
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.
...01Z UPDATE...
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN WY
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS BY 06Z AS 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM. LEADING
EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
ONGOING CONVECTION THAT IS NOW PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS, IN PARTICULAR, HAS EVOLVED INTO A
BOWING STRUCTURE, ARCING FROM WEST OF MOBRIDGE SD TO SOUTHEAST OF
DICKINSON ND. THIS ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE HAS PRODUCED SEVERE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60KT, AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
FAVOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM, JUST SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. HAVE
INCREASED WIND PROBABILITIES A BIT ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY
AS THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT PROGRESSES
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
LLJ ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DARROW.. 09/05/2023
READ MORE
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