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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.09.23 09:37l 519 Lines 15631 Bytes #134 (0) @ WW
BID : 7678_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-SEP23
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<VE3KPG<N9PMO<GB7YEW<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 230924/0730Z 7678@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2023 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 694
WW 694 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 240310Z - 241100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STORMS, INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS INITIALLY,
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FAYETTEVILLE AR TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN AR. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 692...WW 693...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
32025.
...THOMPSON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693
WW 693 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 232235Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 535 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ONGOING STORMS WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY FAVORS
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL NEAR 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. SOME
CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO 70 MPH BY LATE EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF JOPLIN MO TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF CHANUTE KS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...WW 691...WW 692...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
31020.
...THOMPSON
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692
WW 692 SEVERE TSTM OK 232105Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 692
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2023
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...INITIALLY, AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
LARGE HAIL RISK ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST
OF BARTLESVILLE OK TO 25 MILES WEST OF MCALESTER OK. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...WW 691...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29025.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 694 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0694 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0694 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 693 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0693 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW BVO
TO 30 SW CNU TO 50 NE CNU.
..GOSS..09/24/23
ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-011-021-037-099-125-133-240440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-105-109-119-141-
145-167-185-209-213-217-225-229-240440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS GREENE
HICKORY JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MORGAN
NEWTON POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE TANEY VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0692 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 692
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N OKC TO
35 NNW CQB TO 15 NNW BVO.
..GOSS..09/24/23
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 692
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-005-021-027-029-035-037-041-061-063-077-079-081-087-091-
097-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-131-133-135-143-
145-147-240440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA CHEROKEE
CLEVELAND COAL CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL
HUGHES LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0691 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 691
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ALO TO
40 E FOD TO 25 N LWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
..MOORE..09/24/23
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-009-015-023-025-027-029-033-037-049-063-067-069-073-077-
079-081-091-109-121-147-151-161-187-189-195-197-240240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDUBON BOONE
BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW
DALLAS EMMET FLOYD
FRANKLIN GREENE GUTHRIE
HAMILTON HANCOCK HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH MADISON PALO ALTO
POCAHONTAS SAC WEBSTER
WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 690 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0690 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SUPINIE..09/23/23
ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 690
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC091-103-107-121-209-240040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN
MIAMI WYANDOTTE
MOC013-025-033-037-041-047-053-061-083-089-095-101-107-115-117-
159-165-177-195-240040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES CALDWELL CARROLL
CASS CHARITON CLAY
COOPER DAVIESS HENRY
HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON
LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON
PETTIS PLATTE RAY
SALINE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
READ MORE
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SPC MD 2190
MD 2190 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692...693... FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2023
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692...693...
VALID 240244Z - 240415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 692, 693
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE-WEATHER RISK CONTINUES, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
LOCALLY BEYOND THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIMES OF WW 692 AND 693 (04Z
AND 05Z RESPECTIVELY). NEW/DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
ONGOING FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE STORMS ARE PERSISTING WITHIN A AREA OF PRONOUNCED
INSTABILITY (2000 TO 3000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE), AND ARE BEING
ASSISTED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
AN OVERALL, GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
OBSERVED RECENTLY. STILL, IT APPEARS THAT SOME SEVERE RISK --
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF 1" TO 1 3/4" HAIL, AND WIND GUSTS LOCALLY
IN EXCESS OF 50 TO 55 KT, WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH/AFTER
MIDNIGHT, SPREADING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TIME. AS THIS
OCCURS, NEW WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM, ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE NEED FOR LOCAL EXTENSIONS IN TIME/AREA OF EXISTING WATCHES.
..GOSS.. 09/24/2023
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 34659768 35899726 37699509 38109355 37299227 34659237
33279295 34249671 34659768
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 24, 2023 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2023
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
THROUGH LATE EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND A COUPLE TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
...EASTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO...
THE BULK OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE FOCUSED ON ONGOING CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST MO INTO EASTERN OK THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, LATEST VWP FROM KINX SHOWS
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS, WITH ENLARGED,
FAVORABLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES
TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME.
...NORTHERN MO INTO MN...
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE LARGELY LIMITED GREATER
DESTABILIZATION/AIRMASS RECOVERY. WHILE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAIN OVER THE REGION, POOR THERMODYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM IA NORTHWARD, POSING A RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND MARGINAL HAIL.
... MID-ATLANTIC...
THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED AS THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING, AND ANY BETTER OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS/KINEMATICS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
..LEITMAN.. 09/24/2023
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